BP LSE Earnings call
BP (BP) · Q4 2025 results and valuation
Share price: 567.00 GBp · 2026-11-11
Results Q4 2025 vs Q2 2025 · previous quarter · published 10 Feb 2026 and 5 Aug 2025
Net income down 32.9% on the previous quarter, guidance raised. Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
−32.9%
Net income vs Q2 2025
Guidance raised
Net income 1.29B vs 1.93B
Revenue +303.9%
Against the same quarter last year (Q4 2024) it is +5.4%, so the move on last quarter looks seasonal or timing-related rather than a trend.
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 76% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Figure
The reserves replacement ratio rose to 90% from an average of around 50% after the company started up 7 major projects.
Valuation
Is BP undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
The projected cash flow doesn't cover the debt, so the price is far above the model's fair value.
Current price
$45.26
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
out of range for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$-1.28
Buy below
$-0.96
Price vs fair value
n/a
Price vs buy-below price
n/a
Read between the lines
-
Key theme
BP increased its adjusted free cash flow by around 55% in 2025 on a price-adjusted basis, which contributes to its primary targets.
Source quote
“Kate will provide further details on each of them shortly, but the headlines are we increased adjusted free cash flow... Turning then to our primary targets, where we've made good progress this year. Net debt was $22.2 billion at the end of last year, which is $800 million lower than at the end of 2024.”
-
Guidance
BP updated its guidance to expect structural cost reductions of $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion by 2027 following the Castrol strategic review.
Source quote
“Reflecting the recently announced outcome of the Castrol strategic review, we now expect to deliver structural cost reductions of $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion by 2027.”
-
Fading
Expected proceeds from completed or announced divestments have reached around $3 billion for the year, and BP now has delivered around $1.7…
Source quote
“Expected proceeds from completed or announced divestments have reached around $3 billion for the year, and we now have delivered around $1.7... ...customers' business are up around 50% compared to a year ago and trading has delivered well quarter-on- quarter despite challenging conditions. We've also announced a dividend per ordinary share of $0.0832, an increase of 4% and a further $750 million share buyback for the second quarter.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q4 2025. Ring: Q2 2025.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“So we balance it in terms of what do we think is going to create the best value for BP, what's the best opportunity in the market and then how...”
“And I'm extremely proud that according to the most recent IPA benchmarks, we are ranked best-in-class overall for our projects starting up and staying up.”
“And okay, if I'm going to believe in growth, and the growth opportunity of your portfolio.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2025-12-31)
| Metric | Q4 2025period end 2025-12-31 | Q2 2025period end 2025-06-30 | Change | Q4 2024 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 192.55B | 47.68B | +303.9% | 194.63B | −1.1% |
| Operating income | 12.64B | 4.06B | +211.7% | 11.30B | +11.9% |
| Net income | 1.29B | 1.93B | −32.9% | 1.23B | +5.4% |
| P/E | — | — | — | — | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- BP has got a net debt target of 14% to 18%.
- From my 25 years in BP, I know BP has fantastic assets, and it has got exceptional people.
- This result was underpinned by strong operating performance, which Carol already highlighted.
- Operating cash flow for the year was $24.5 billion, including an adjusted working capital build of $2.9 billion this year.
- BP is also progressing its business improvement plan at TA and the commercial integration of its BP Bioenergy acquisition is now...
Faded since Q2 2025
- Fading The total resource management project, which Cape Program, which Kate talked about, is that's around BP's third-party contractors.
- Fading The only other one that's probably worth highlighting is in the gas and low carbon space, where BP has taken a...
- Fading You can see there's been a pretty sizable working capital build through the first half.
- Fading BP has got centralized maintenance, centralized towers where common processes being deployed.