MPC US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $402.84 · 2026-11-11
Marathon Petroleum is an integrated energy company that refines crude oil and other feedstocks into products such as gasoline, distillates, and renewable diesel. The company operates refining, midstream, and renewable diesel segments, providing transportation, storage, and distribution services for domestic and international markets. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-26)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 3 Nov 2026 and 4 Aug 2026
Net income up 44.9% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+44.9%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 7.45B vs 5.14B
Revenue +7.8%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is +443.6%, so it is not just seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
More upbeat than 59% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.
Last call it was different: the answers were less upbeat than the script.
3 · What stood out
Guidance
Marathon Petroleum is seeing strength in utilization in the Utica from second quarter in about 70%, moving to 80% in the third quarter, and it…
Valuation
Is Marathon Petroleum undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At −9.2% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $110.62 a share — the stock trades 264% above it. Today's price assumes 9.8% growth a year.
Current price
$402.84
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+9.8% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$110.62
Buy below
$82.97
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
-
Guidance
Marathon Petroleum expects to remain in an enhanced mid-cycle environment through the end of the decade with elevated margins through at least mid-2027.
-
Figure
Paul Park and Mandan refineries, and MPLX has agreed to sell the associated midstream assets to CVR Energy for $4.2...
-
Fading
Extensive pipelines and logistics provide abundant access to crude, limiting Marathon Petroleum's exposure to Brent-priced crudes, which were more significantly impacted by the Persian…
Source quote
“Extensive pipelines and logistics provide abundant access to crude, limiting our exposure to Brent-priced crudes, which were more significantly impacted by the Persian... Our ability to run advantage crude and optimize yields to meet consumer demand remains a core strength. In the second quarter, we also completed two high-return, yield-enhancing refining investments, further positioning us to deliver incremental value.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“The increase is supported by MPLX's multi-year track record of delivering mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and growth projects coming online over the next several years.”
“Natural gas and NGL fundamentals remain robust, creating compelling opportunities to support growing domestic and global demand for U.S.”
“The increase was primarily driven by higher rates and throughputs, increased income from equity affiliates, and growth from acquisitions.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 56.03B | 51.99B | +7.8% | 34.81B | +61.0% |
| Gross profit | 12.24B | 8.93B | +37.0% | 3.61B | +239.1% |
| Operating income | 10.45B | 7.32B | +42.7% | 2.71B | +285.2% |
| Net income | 7.45B | 5.14B | +44.9% | 1.37B | +443.6% |
| EPS | 26.59 | 17.73 | +50.0% | 4.51 | +489.6% |
| P/E today 7.4 | 7.8 | 8.9 | −1.1 | 20.5 | −12.7 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- The increase is supported by MPLX's multi-year track record of delivering mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and growth projects…
- Marathon Petroleum delivered peer-leading cash flow generation in the third quarter, demonstrating the strength of its system.
- Per barrel
- Marathon Petroleum achieved this while executing its planned turnaround activity, maintaining its commitment to safe and reliable…
- Marathon Petroleum is developing a resilient portfolio for today and for the future, investing where it sees attractive returns and…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Marathon Petroleum is sourcing economically advantaged barrels, optimizing its feedstock to improve clean product yields, increasing…
- Fading The Robinson product flexibility investment enables approximately 10,000 bpd of incremental jet fuel production, supporting growing…
- Fading It demonstrates Marathon Petroleum's planning, commercial, and operational capabilities, which enable safe and reliable operations to meet…
- Fading In the Gulf Coast, Marathon Petroleum ran 100% utilization, delivering $27 of adjusted EBITDA per barrel, where crude optimization, higher…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Marathon Petroleum Corp. reported second-quarter 2026 net income of $5.1 billion, up from $1.2 billion in the second quarter of 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $8.5 billion compared to $3.3 billion a year earlier.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Marathon Petroleum Corporation announced the passing of director Abdulaziz F. Alkhayyal on June 26, 2026, who had served on the board since 2016.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Marathon Petroleum Corp. reported net income of $511 million for the first quarter of 2026, compared to a net loss of $74 million in the first quarter of 2025.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Material agreement; Agreement terminated; Results of operations; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
Marathon Petroleum Corporation entered into a $5.0 billion, five-year revolving credit agreement on April 7, 2026, replacing the 2022 agreement with no outstanding borrowings at the time of termination.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Marathon Petroleum Corp. reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $1.5 billion, up from $371 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, and full-year 2025 net income of $4.0 billion compared to $3.4 billion in 2024.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-19.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$7.77B
2026-06-30
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -5.9% YoY, -2.0% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 331.0M |
| Q1 2025 | 313.0M |
| Q2 2025 | 307.0M |
| Q3 2025 | 303.0M |
| Q1 2026 | 295.0M |
| Q2 2026 | 289.0M |
Shares outstanding: 280.8M (2026-07-30)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. 37 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
44.8K shares
$13.9M · 17 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
-
through the end of the year and into 2027
enhanced mid-cycle environment
Source quote
“Looking ahead, we expect to remain in an enhanced mid-cycle environment through the end of the year and into 2027.”
-
fourth quarter
Blackcomb expected to achieve full commercial service
Source quote
“The joint venture partners continue to progress the pipeline as planned, with Blackcomb expected to achieve full commercial service in the fourth quarter.”
-
by the end of the year
sour gas treating capacity is expected to expand to over 400 million cu ft per day
Source quote
“In the Permian, sour gas treating volumes exceeded 150 million cu ft per day for the second consecutive quarter as MPLX continues to optimize operations at our Titan treating facility, and sour gas treating capacity is expected to expand to over 400 million cu ft per day by the end of the year.”
-
2026
mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, weighted towards the second half of the year
Source quote
“With multiple investments transitioning from construction to operations this year, MPLX is on track to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026, weighted towards the second half of the year.”
-
2027
strong adjusted EBITDA growth
Source quote
“This also positions MPLX for strong adjusted EBITDA growth in 2027.”