National Fuel Gas (NFG) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

The projected cash flow doesn't cover the debt, so the price is far above the model's fair value.

1. Key theme

   A multiyear rate plan in New York drove top-line margin growth in regulated businesses, which offset lower production and higher operating costs from inflation and two discrete items.

   Source quote

   “At our regulated businesses, we continue to see top-line margin growth resulting from our multiyear rate plan in New York... This resulted from lower production in our Integrated Upstream and Gathering business that more than offset stronger natural gas price realizations and hedge gains. These benefits for the quarter were largely offset by higher operating costs compared to last year, driven by general inflation and 2 discrete items.”

2. Guidance

   NFG updated its guidance to expect earnings per share to grow between 7% and 10% per year on average through fiscal '29 based on current natural gas price curves.

   Source quote

   “Assuming the current forward curve for natural gas prices, we now expect earnings per share to grow between 7% and 10% per year on average through fiscal '29.”

3. Guidance

   This range primarily reflects its updated Seneca production outlook for the year, which National Fuel Gas now projects to be between 420 and 430 Bcfe.

4. Fading

   The company reported better understanding of its portfolio because it now has more information and more wells across its broader operations.

   Source quote

   “Like I said, I mean, we've got a lot of wells across our broader portfolio, a lot more information, a lot better...”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“There's strong momentum across the company, most notably the continued growth of our regulated businesses, the Ohio gas utility acquisition and ongoing efficiency gains at Seneca.”

“At the same time, the natural gas macro outlook remains very constructive over the long term with growing LNG exports and rising power generation demand, providing durable support for long...”

“These strong margins, along with our improving trend in capital efficiency, makes us confident in our ability to grow both per share earnings and free cash flow.”