XOM US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
ExxonMobil (XOM) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $166.71 · 2026-11-11
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 30 Oct 2026 and 31 Jul 2026
Net income up 6.1% on the previous quarter. Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+6.1%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 15.41B vs 14.53B
Revenue −2.5%
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 68% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Figure
Over the past decade, ExxonMobil has invested more than $200 billion.
Valuation
Is ExxonMobil undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At −7.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $30.89 a share — the stock trades 440% above it. Today's price assumes 13.6% growth a year.
Current price
$166.71
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+13.6% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$30.89
Buy below
$23.17
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Management expects
Growth +25% · from the Q3 2026 report: “We expect to expand their use to about 25% of our Permian fleet next year and approximately half by 2028, helping us continue to grow U.S.”
A guidance figure for growth, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
-
Guidance
ExxonMobil expects to expand their use to about 25% of its Permian fleet next year and approximately half by 2028, helping us continue to grow U.S.
-
Fading
Cumulative structural cost savings have increased to $16.3 billion since 2019, with centralized organizations contributing nearly half of the year-to-date…
Source quote
“Cumulative structural cost savings have increased to $16.3 billion since 2019, with centralized organizations contributing nearly half of the year-to-date... The value of this transformation is showing up in our results. Financially, this was a strong quarter with more than $14 billion of earnings, more than $17 billion of free cash flow and a more than $7 billion...”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“I do feel, again, by making that change and bringing the upstream part of that development into the portfolio and managing it as one continuous project, we're already beginning to...”
“Cumulative LNG production in PNG has now surpassed 100 million tons, with plans on track to further grow P &G production with the Papua LNG project, where we agreed to...”
“Global utilization of our fuels manufacturing facilities, excluding Middle East impacts, is at its highest level on record.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 113.16B | 116.02B | −2.5% | 85.29B | +32.7% |
| Operating income | 21.24B | 19.42B | +9.3% | 10.93B | +94.3% |
| Net income | 15.41B | 14.53B | +6.1% | 7.55B | +104.2% |
| EPS | 3.72 | 3.48 | +6.9% | 1.76 | +111.4% |
| P/E | — | — | — | — | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- ExxonMobil has stayed focused on the fundamentals of demand and developing competitively advantaged projects that grow supply across the…
- ExxonMobil alwayses have, which is why it has been constantly focused on efficiently growing advantaged production to keep markets supplied.
- As ExxonMobil started transforming the organization and creating value chains and then centralizing these core capabilities, so think…
- Marketing separate, but and instead piecing all that together and running the business as a value chain, ExxonMobil recognizes the...
- From my perspective, those three areas, technology, projects, and operations, are fundamental value pillars that form the foundation for…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped One of the advantages that ExxonMobil has had is with the investments that it has made both in Singapore and in Rotterdam,...
- Fading Establishing globally diverse production at scale across value chains built on a foundation of durable advantages provides a robust…
- Fading I want to highlight that ExxonMobil plans to publish its annual global outlook in September, a comprehensive report detailing...
- Fading Of course, Ukraine has been pretty effective at taking Russia refining capacity out.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K