TOL NYSE Russell 1000 Earnings call
Toll Brothers (TOL) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $151.00 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · fiscal Q3 2026 · published 19 Aug 2026 and 20 May 2026
Net income up 7.5% on the previous quarter. Management sounded cautious, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+7.5%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 280.1M vs 260.6M
Revenue +5.0%
2 · How management spoke
Cautious
Among the least upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Toll Brothers projects between 10,500 and 10,600 delivered homes at an average price between $995,000 and $1 million, an increase of approximately $53 million.
Valuation
Is Toll Brothers undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-10-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 2.2% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $154.92 a share — the stock trades 3% below it. Today's price assumes 1.8% growth a year.
Current price
$151.00
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+1.8% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$154.92
Buy below
$116.19
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 3%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 30%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
Delivered home guidance is now 10,500–10,600 units at $995,000–$1 million, which equates to an approximate $53 million increase.
Source quote
“We now project between 10,500 and 10,600 delivered homes at an average price between $995,000 and $1 million, which equates to an approximate $53 million increase in our full...”
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Guidance
Interest and cost of sales are expected to be about 1.1% in Q4 and the full year.
Source quote
“We expect interest and cost of sales to be approximately 1.1% in the fourth quarter and for the full year.”
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Guidance
The company delivered 2,662 homes and generated $2.6 billion in sales revenue, exceeding the midpoint of its guidance for both units.
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Fading
The company is shifting focus toward the move up as the emphasis on high margin and good deal flow faded compared to the previous quarter.
Source quote
“And when you combine that as a business in really good shape with high margin with good deal flow and less finished... We're focused more and more on move up.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“And while we remain focused on executing in the current environment, we are well positioned to accelerate growth, margins and returns when market conditions eventually improve.”
“It's profitable growth, and that will continue to be our focus where we know we have a lot of opportunity.”
“This increase was once again driven by the successful execution of our growth strategy.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-07-31)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-07-31 | Q1 2026period end 2026-04-30 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.66B | 2.53B | +5.0% | 2.95B | −9.7% |
| Gross profit | 625.2M | 604.9M | +3.4% | 741.4M | −15.7% |
| Operating income | 359.2M | 346.6M | +3.6% | 487.7M | −26.4% |
| Net income | 280.1M | 260.6M | +7.5% | 369.6M | −24.2% |
| EPS | 2.97 | 2.72 | +9.2% | 3.73 | −20.4% |
| P/E today 10.9 | 11.8 | 10.8 | +1.0 | 8.7 | +3.1 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Adjusted gross margin was 25.6% or 35 basis points better than guidance, and Toll Brothers generated $280.1 million of earnings or...
- Based on its strong year-to-date performance and its outlook for the fourth quarter, Toll Brothers is reaffirming all of its full...
- Net signed contracts increased 5% compared to the third quarter of last year.
- Toll Brothers remains focused on opening new communities across the country and continue to expect to end the year with 480...
- The demand environment remained challenging in the third quarter.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading Toll Brothers took it down 28% through a lot of hard work, and it did require some more incentives, as it has...
- Fading Toll Brothers has some exceptional locations, and it's because it is willing to build luxury homes this move-up segment of its...
- Fading This is a community that's opened up with almost no new home competition within the zip code and school district.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Material agreement · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Other events · SEC 8-K