AMCR US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Amcor (AMCR) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $44.39 · 2026-11-11
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · fiscal Q1 2027 · published 4 Nov 2026 and 12 Aug 2026
Net income down 37.8% on the previous quarter. Management sounded upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
−37.8%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 242.0M vs 389.0M
Revenue −4.2%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is −7.6% — part of the move on last quarter is seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 80% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, but clearly less so than the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Key theme
Adjusted EPS of 95 cents was flat to pry a year on a constant currency basis as expected.
Valuation
Is Amcor undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2026-06-30), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 17.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $76.98 a share — the stock trades 42% below it. Today's price assumes 11.9% growth a year.
Current price
$44.39
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+11.9% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$76.98
Buy below
$57.74
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 42%
Price vs buy-below price
Undervalued 23%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
Taking all of this into account Amcor is expecting to deliver double-digit adjusted eps growth in 2027 and it is targeting leverage of approximately three times by year end...
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Figure
The business generated quarterly revenue of $6.1 billion, which increased 7% over prior year driven by volume growth of 1%...
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Fading
Those things are really driving the growth synergies where Amcor is making really good progress.
Source quote
“And those things are really driving the growth synergies where we are making really good progress. And we talked about capabilities like an innovation and sustainability that we can bring to the market. And I expect that really just to be the beginning.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 92% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Growth in pet food is driven by innovative, sustainable barrier packaging solutions as we win with some of the largest and fastest growing brands.”
“In food service, growth is driven by our product leadership in fully recyclable polypropylene cups, lids, and containers, which is translating into new QSR wins.”
“Our leadership in sustainability and innovation are also driving wins with these accounts, as we deliver fully recyclable product solutions that will help our customers minimize fees from new packaging...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.13B | 6.40B | −4.2% | 5.75B | +6.7% |
| Gross profit | 1.16B | 1.34B | −13.3% | 1.12B | +3.1% |
| Operating income | 454.0M | 646.0M | −29.7% | 461.0M | −1.5% |
| Net income | 242.0M | 389.0M | −37.8% | 262.0M | −7.6% |
| EPS | 0.52 | 0.83 | −37.3% | 0.57 | −8.8% |
| P/E today 19.3 | 18.0 | 18.2 | −0.2 | 20.1 | −2.1 |
Topics
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