PHM US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
PulteGroup (PHM) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $129.50 · 2026-11-11
PulteGroup is an American residential home-construction company based in Georgia. The company builds homes for the residential market in the United States. Source: Wikipedia
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 22 Oct 2026 and 22 Jul 2026
Net income up 0.8% on the previous quarter. Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
+0.8%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 475.7M vs 472.0M
Revenue −0.2%
Why Against the same quarter last year (−18.8%), net income fell primarily due to slower sales among move-up buyers reflecting weakness in that buyer group and the Texas and West operations.
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 81% of company calls
Answers to analysts: cautious, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
PulteGroup expects full-year operating cash flow to be approximately $1 billion based on operating results from the first nine months of 2026.
Valuation
Is PulteGroup undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 2.7% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $135.82 a share — the stock trades 5% below it. Today's price assumes 2.0% growth a year.
Current price
$129.50
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+2.0% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$135.82
Buy below
$101.86
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 5%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 27%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
PHM now expects to close between 7,000 and 7,500 homes in the fourth quarter based on backlog, homes under construction, and recent trends in the pace of spec sales.
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Guidance
PHM is maintaining its full-year gross margin guidance in the range of 24.5% to 25.0% based on its Q4 margin guide.
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Guidance
PHM maintained its guidance for average sales price on closings in the range of $550,000 to $560,000 for both the fourth quarter and the full year.
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Figure
Traffic to communities decreased 14 percent from the prior year and 11 percent from the second quarter, while conversion rates remained relatively stable.
Source quote
“In the third quarter, our customer conversion rates were relatively stable but traffic to our communities was down 14 percent from the prior year and on a sequential basis down 11 percent from the second quarter.”
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Guidance
PHM expects full-year operating cash flow to be approximately $1 billion based on operating results from the first nine months of 2026.
4 more
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Figure
Pulte Group maintains a balance sheet with 1.4 billion dollars in cash and net debt to capital of only three percent to provide financial flexibility and capitalize on market opportunities.
Source quote
“Pulte Group's balance sheet provides tremendous strength and financial flexibility. with 1.4 billion dollars in cash and net debt to capital of only three percent not only can we weather tough times but we can capitalize on market opportunities.”
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Figure
Conversion rates in the third quarter were comparable to the first two quarters of 2026 because sales teams helped buyers solve specific challenges.
Source quote
“Our sales teams were able to help buyers solve these challenges such that our conversion rates in the third quarter were comparable to the first two quarters of 2026.”
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Figure
PulteGroup's lower absorption pace is a consequence of the drop in prospective buyer traffic to Pulte Group communities.
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Figure
PHM's cycle time fell below 100 days to 99 days for the first time since pre-COVID, which includes all of the company's four- and five-story multifamily buildings.
Source quote
“And to your cycle time question, we went below 100 days for the first time since pre-COVID, and that includes all of the big four- and five-story multifamily buildings that we do are incorporated in that 99 days.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“To the former, in the third quarter, we delivered almost 7,000 homes, maintained our focus on delivering strong gross margins and overall solid returns, while increasing our backlog and returning...”
“So we certainly got the financial strength and financial capability to execute, but we're going to be super disciplined that if we are pursuing an opportunity, it truly furthers and...”
“I want to thank them and the entire Pulte Group organization for the operating and financial success they delivered in the third quarter and for their efforts to ensure our...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.97B | 3.98B | −0.2% | 4.40B | −9.8% |
| Gross profit | 1.07B | 1.06B | +0.8% | 1.22B | −12.8% |
| Net income | 475.7M | 472.0M | +0.8% | 585.8M | −18.8% |
| EPS | 2.53 | 2.48 | +2.0% | 2.96 | −14.5% |
| P/E today 14.2 | 12.4 | 14.0 | −1.6 | 10.2 | +2.2 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release and within...
- Taking into consideration PulteGroup's backlog, current demand conditions, competitive market dynamics, and the need...
- Cycle through existing spec inventory, PulteGroup expects fourth quarter gross margins to be in the range of 24.0% to 24.5%.
- Based on feedback from PulteGroup's sales associates, in the third quarter, they were routinely working through these important customer…
- As PulteGroup has discussed on prior calls, it views lot options as a tool to both improve project returns and...
Faded since Q2 2026
- Fading Based on the timing of community openings and closings over the remainder of 2026, PulteGroup expects year-over-year community count…
- Fading The things that are happening PulteGroup is not surprised by because for a long time, it has appreciated the value of having...
- Dropped Core consumer demand trends followed a typical seasonal pattern as PulteGroup moved through this year's spring selling season.
- Dropped PulteGroup absolutely continue to partner with all of the advanced manufacturing companies that it currently work with, including whoever…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
PulteGroup reported home sale revenues of $3.9 billion, a 9% decrease from $4.2 billion in the prior year, and net income of $476 million, or $2.53 per share.
- Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
PulteGroup reported earnings of $2.48 per share and home sale revenues of $3.8 billion, while net new orders increased 6% to 7,536 homes and order value increased 5% to $4.1 billion.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
PulteGroup reported net income of $347 million ($1.79 per share) for the first quarter of 2026, compared to $523 million ($2.57 per share) in the prior year.
- Material agreement · SEC 8-K
PulteGroup, Inc. completed an underwritten public offering of $800.0 million in senior unsecured notes, consisting of $400.0 million of 4.250% notes due 2031 and $400.0 million of 4.900% notes due 2036.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
PulteGroup, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement to issue $800.0 million in senior unsecured notes and issued a notice to redeem $337.3 million of its 2027 notes.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
PulteGroup, Inc. announced the appointment of Kristin Gannon as an independent director to its Board of Directors, effective February 10, 2026.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-27.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$1.37B
2026-09-30
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -5.0% YoY, -1.5% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 202.1M |
| Q2 2025 | 199.2M |
| Q3 2025 | 196.5M |
| Q1 2026 | 192.1M |
| Q2 2026 | 189.4M |
| Q3 2026 | 186.6M |
Shares outstanding: 184.1M (2026-10-15)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. 34 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
197.7K shares
$26.4M · 8 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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fourth quarter
expected number of homes to close
Source quote
“Based on backlog, homes under construction, and recent trends in the pace of spec sales, we now expect to close between 7,000 and 7,500 homes in the fourth quarter.”
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fourth quarter
anticipated number of closings
Source quote
“Further, given the expected Q4 closings, we now anticipate four-year closings to be in the range of $27,000 to $27,500 homes.”
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fourth quarter
average sales price on closings
Source quote
“Based on the mix of homes we anticipate closing in the fourth quarter, we are still guiding our average sales price on closings to be in the range of $550,000 to $560,000 in the fourth quarter and for the full year.”
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fourth quarter
community count growth
Source quote
“We are still forecasting year-over-year community count growth of 3% to 5% in the fourth quarter, but fewer community closeouts in the period could again elevate the percentage growth rate.”
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fourth quarter
gross margins
Source quote
“Taking into consideration our backlog, current demand conditions, competitive market dynamics, and the need to cycle through existing spec inventory, we expect fourth quarter gross margins to be in the range of 24.0% to 24.5%.”