BALL US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Ball Corporation (BALL) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $65.81 · 2026-11-11
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 3 Nov 2026 and 4 Aug 2026
Net income turned to a loss from a profit last quarter. Management sounded upbeat, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
Turned loss
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income -94.0M vs 223.0M
Revenue +4.8%
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 85% of company calls
Answers to analysts: very upbeat, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Guidance
Looking ahead, Ball expects volume growth in the middle of its long-term 4% to 6% range in 2026.
Valuation
Is Ball Corporation undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At −0.5% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $7.46 a share — the stock trades 782% above it. Today's price assumes 13.5% growth a year.
Current price
$65.81
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+13.5% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$7.46
Buy below
$5.59
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Management expects
Growth +5% · from the Q3 2026 report: “Looking ahead, we expect volume growth in the middle of our long-term 4% to 6% range in 2026.”
A guidance figure for growth, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
-
Guidance
Segment comparable operating earnings declined 2.4% year-over-year as higher costs, including approximately $5 million of start-up costs were partially offset by favorable price mix…
Source quote
“Segment comparable operating earnings declined 2.4% year-over-year as higher costs, including approximately $5 million of start-up costs were partially offset by favorable price mix... Demand remained constructive in energy drinks and nonalcoholic beverages. We continue to expect full year start-up costs to total approximately $35 million, with roughly $30 million expected in the second half.”
-
Fading
It is also why Ball's 2026 framework remains unchanged, 10-plus percent comparable diluted EPS growth, strong free cash flow and consistent returns…
Source quote
“It is also why our 2026 framework remains unchanged, 10-plus percent comparable diluted EPS growth, strong free cash flow and consistent returns... ...the second quarter and first half, that discipline showed up in our financial performance while we continue to focus on delivering operational results in line with our Ball Business System goals. With that context, let me address how those priorities translated into our second quarter and first half results.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“It wins in all of our geographies as evidenced by a really strong volume growth again this quarter and this year on top of a really strong quarter last year...”
“Global volumes improved 4.7% year-over-year, with growth in each region reflecting continued momentum across our portfolio and keeping us on track to exceed the full-year volume outlook we outlined earlier...”
“With attractive industry fundamentals, strong customer relationships, disciplined execution, financial strength, and an operating system built for continuous improvement, Ball remains well positioned to deliver on our 2026 objectives and...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.19B | 4.00B | +4.8% | 3.38B | +23.9% |
| Net income | -94.0M | 223.0M | Turned loss | 321.0M | Turned loss |
| EPS | -0.36 | 0.83 | Turned loss | 1.18 | Turned loss |
| P/E today 33.1 | 28.2 | 17.8 | +10.4 | 19.4 | +8.8 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- They have done an excellent job supporting Ball's customers and managing strong growth through the summer selling season in North...
- Ball remains well positioned to benefit from Ball's long-term customer partnerships, a well-contracted portfolio, EVA mindset, and…
- Ball's recently announced facilities in India and Germany are part of that strategy and will position us to support customer...
- With attractive industry fundamentals, strong customer relationships, disciplined execution, financial strength, and an operating system…
- A healthy balance sheet and capital expenditures averaging depreciation and amortization over time give us the opportunity to continue…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Fading In North and Central America, volumes increased low single digits year-over-year, consistent with Ball's expectations for full year growth…
- Fading What I will say is really great news for it is Ball's plant in Millersburg is now making commercial cans...
- Fading As it relates to customers and contracts, et cetera, I would just say overall volume growth, nothing specific to any...
- Fading While it's relatively small, Ball really like its PHC business, and it gives me the chance to thank all the...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K