EXPE US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Expedia Group (EXPE) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $259.79 · 2026-11-11
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 4 Nov 2026 and 5 Aug 2026
Net income up 17.3% on the previous quarter, guidance raised. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+17.3%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Guidance raised
Net income 1.03B vs 878.0M
Revenue +14.4%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is +7.4% — part of the move on last quarter is seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
More upbeat than 63% of company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Guidance ↑
Expedia is also raising its margin guidance for the full year and now expect adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 180 basis points to…
Valuation
Is Expedia Group undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 8.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $573.16 a share — the stock trades 55% below it. Today's price assumes −3.3% growth a year.
Current price
$259.79
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
-3.3% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$573.16
Buy below
$429.87
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 55%
Price vs buy-below price
Undervalued 40%
Management expects
Revenue +4.85% · from the Q3 2026 report: “We expect revenue of $3.69 billion to $3.75 billion, representing growth of approximately 4% to 5.7% year-over-year, with minimal FX impact at current rates.”
A guidance figure for revenue, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Key theme
It starts with natural language search on the homepage
Source quote
“It starts with natural language search on the homepage. And again, it's relatively small traffic, but let me talk you through how we think about those natural language touch points. So instead of someone just typing in a destination and dates and number of travelers, they can use natural language to describe what they're looking for.”
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Key theme
Expedia's third quarter performance exceeded the high end of its guidance, reflecting stronger than expected travel demand, continued momentum in its B2B segment…
Source quote
“Our third quarter performance exceeded the high end of our guidance, reflecting stronger than expected travel demand, continued momentum in our B2B segment... Gross bookings increased 11% year-over-year, driven primarily by 7% room night growth and 3% ADR growth on an FX-neutral basis.”
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Guidance
Expedia expects revenue of $3.69 billion to $3.75 billion, representing growth of approximately 4% to 5.7% year-over-year, with minimal FX impact at current rates.
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Figure
Expedia's September sale marked its third consecutive sales event to exceed $1 billion in bookings, demonstrating the power of its two-sided marketplace.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Our third quarter performance exceeded the high end of our guidance, reflecting stronger than expected travel demand, continued momentum in our B2B segment, improved consumer marketing returns, and ongoing cost...”
“The overall operating environment was favorable in Q3, which contributed to the robust room night growth, while strong air bookings growth was supported by higher ATPs.”
“We had a strong third quarter and outperformed the industry, growing bookings 11%, revenue 12%, and expanding our margins by more than a point.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.94B | 4.32B | +14.4% | 4.41B | +11.9% |
| Operating income | 1.33B | 800.0M | +65.8% | 1.04B | +28.0% |
| Net income | 1.03B | 878.0M | +17.3% | 959.0M | +7.4% |
| EPS | 8.42 | 7.16 | +17.6% | 7.33 | +14.9% |
| P/E today 15.2 | 15.4 | 16.1 | −0.7 | 20.6 | −5.2 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- A slide presentation containing financial highlights has also been posted to Expedia's IR website.
- On Expedia, where Expedia's strength has always been booking and managing everything in one place, its enhanced recommendation capabilities…
- Expedia is seeing faster growth in its Silver Plus tiers, and members within these tiers book more direct.
- The overall operating environment was favorable in Q3, which contributed to the robust room night growth, while strong air bookings...
- The margin expansion was driven by higher-than-expected revenue growth, combined with continued consumer marketing leverage and overhead…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Fading Expedia had a solid second quarter, delivering strong financial results while making tangible progress on its strategic priorities.
- Fading Expedia delivered new product experiences, expanded supply across its marketplace, and took an important step in building its one-stop…
- Fading In marketing, as you saw, yes, Expedia has had good marketing leverage.
- Fading The team is also doing some really fantastic work around using technology to be more effective.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Material agreement; Agreement terminated; New financial obligation; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K