SW US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Smurfit Westrock (SW) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $44.03 · 2026-11-11
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 28 Oct 2026 and 29 Jul 2026
Net income up 149.4% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+149.4%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 222.0M vs 89.0M
Revenue +1.6%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is −9.8%, so the move on last quarter looks seasonal or timing-related rather than a trend.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 61% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Guidance
For the full year 2026, Smurfit Westrock now expects adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately $4.7 billion.
Valuation
Is Smurfit Westrock undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 20.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $87.01 a share — the stock trades 49% below it. Today's price assumes 13.4% growth a year.
Current price
$44.03
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+13.4% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$87.01
Buy below
$65.26
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 49%
Price vs buy-below price
Undervalued 33%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
Paper price increases
Source quote
“And all of the paper price increases as we deal with some of the earlier taken orders, as we get rid of those out of our system... Yeah, we have said that we expect to get the full cost recovery of the latest increase in Q1 of next year. you know we talked I mentioned in our in our in my scripts that you know we see very strong paper bag business that's growing very strongly because of some structural shifts so all of that will start to feed through into that later in this quarter all the paper stuff was later in this quarter but really you...”
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Figure
Its second quarter results demonstrate the continued progress Smurfit Westrock has made in Smurfit Westrock with an adjusted EBITDA of $1.14...
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Turning now to a regional overview, our North American business continues to improve in most areas, although this improvement is masked by the amount of increased cost that we have...”
“What I'm most satisfied with is the great work that has been done across the organization in every region to improve efficiency, reduce our costs, further develop our innovation offering,...”
“As we roll out our innovation centers, we continue to benefit from our cross-selling opportunities as a major competitive advantage.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.16B | 8.03B | +1.6% | 8.00B | +2.0% |
| Gross profit | 1.44B | 1.40B | +2.9% | 1.57B | −8.2% |
| Operating income | 487.0M | 309.0M | +57.6% | 526.0M | −7.4% |
| Net income | 222.0M | 89.0M | +149.4% | 246.0M | −9.8% |
| EPS | 0.42 | 0.17 | +147.1% | 0.47 | −10.6% |
| P/E today 49.0 | 49.0 | 49.2 | −0.2 | 29.2 | +19.8 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- It is integrated downstream into Smurfit Westrock's Latin American box system, primarily in Brazil, Argentina, and soon-to-be Chile, and…
- This operation is a great example of successful investments of approximately 350 million dollars over the last five years delivering...
- Smurfit Westrock is in the market with increases currently, and it is sold out in that grade, so therefore it believes that it...
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Turning to the regions and, firstly, to North America, where I'm happy to report progress and development across practically all...
- Dropped Smurfit Westrock's focus remains on being the most innovative packaging partner, delivering superior quality and service for its customers…
- Dropped Therefore, that will make it a relatively easier comparison as Smurfit Westrock goes into the second half of the year.
- Fading Smurfit Westrock remains focused on improving the quality of its customer portfolio, winning business where its decentralized operating…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- New financial obligation; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K