IP US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
International Paper (IP) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $34.66 · 2026-11-11
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 28 Oct 2026 and 30 Jul 2026
Net loss widened on the previous quarter, guidance cut. Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
Loss widened
Net income vs Q2 2026
Guidance cut
Net income -1.13B vs -12.0M
Revenue +3.2%
Net income -1.13B vs -1.10B in Q3 2025 and -12.0M last quarter.
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 81% of company calls
Answers to analysts: cautious, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Key theme
Despite the improvement in earnings, free cash flow was negative $267 million in the quarter.
Valuation
Is International Paper undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Average free cash flow of the last three fiscal years (the last year was negative) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
The projected cash flow doesn't cover the debt, so the price is far above the model's fair value.
Current price
$34.66
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+23.6% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$-5.04
Buy below
$-3.78
Price vs fair value
n/a
Price vs buy-below price
n/a
Read between the lines
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Key theme
The EMEA management team will provide more information at the DS Smith PLC Capital Markets Day on November 3rd.
Source quote
“The EMEA management team will provide more information at the DS Smith PLC Capital Markets Day on November 3rd. ...quarter, in light of the planned separation of the EMEA business and the subsequent UK regulatory requirements, we are no longer including our existing Packaging Solutions EMEA US GAAP Financial Guidance in our guidance framework and do not anticipate providing such guidance in the future. This will include details about the business model, growth strategy, and financial outlook following the separation.”
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Guidance ↓
Higher inflation and weaker volume expectations have reduced International Paper's full-year outlook.
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Guidance
In North America, International Paper expects further improvement in the fourth quarter and throughout 2027 as cost reductions, productivity gains, and price utilization help us offset inflation.
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Guidance
International Paper's full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook is moving to $2.27 billion to $2.31 billion.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“The benefit of one additional shipping day was more than offset by softer demand, including food safety-related disruption in West Coast agriculture, weakness in protein, seasonally lower”
“But higher inflation and weaker volume expectations have reduced our full-year outlook.”
“In EMEA, softer demand in a challenging macroeconomic environment continued to weigh on sales.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.20B | 6.00B | +3.2% | 6.22B | −0.4% |
| Gross profit | 1.93B | 1.66B | +16.5% | 1.94B | −0.1% |
| Net income | -1.13B | -12.0M | Loss widened | -1.10B | Loss widened |
| EPS | -2.13 | -0.02 | Loss widened | -2.09 | Loss widened |
| P/E | 12-mo loss | 12-mo loss | — | 12-mo loss | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Realization of previously published paper price increases are on track, and cost-out actions help mitigate rising input costs.
- I'd also like to remind everyone there is important information at the beginning of International Paper's presentation including certain…
- Its focus is to control what International Paper can control and execute the three pillars of its strategy, an advantage cost...
- International Paper received most of the expected insurance recovery during the quarter.
- The temporary Pine Hill shutdown had a $20 million unfavorable impact in the quarter, including roof repairs and business interruption...
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped International Paper is endeavoring to make sure that it tries to match that as close to the periods that are impacted...
- Fading Across the company, International Paper delivered strong operational performance, successfully executed a particularly heavy outage…
- Fading International Paper also continued making steady progress toward the planned separation of its EMEA packaging business.
- Fading International Paper will be working with its insurance providers to work through it, and it will keep you guys updated as it...
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