PKG US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $253.01 · 2026-11-11
Packaging Corporation of America produces containerboard products, uncoated freesheet paper, and various corrugated packaging products. The company serves the food, beverage, and industrial sectors, operating primarily in the United States. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-26)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 22 Oct 2026 and 23 Jul 2026
Management sounded restrained, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
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Figures not yet filed
Outlook given
2 · How management spoke
Restrained
Less upbeat than 73% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
The acquired Greif business contributed $0.13 of earnings this year compared to an $0.11 loss last year, resulting in a $0.24 favorable year-over-year difference.
Valuation
Is Packaging Corporation of America undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 2.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $69.68 a share — the stock trades 263% above it. Today's price assumes 15.5% growth a year.
Current price
$253.01
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+15.5% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$69.68
Buy below
$52.26
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
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Figure
Excluding special items, third quarter 2026 net income rose to $272 million or $3.04 per share from $247 million or $2.73 per share in the third quarter of 2025.
Source quote
“Excluding special items, third quarter 2026 net income was $272 million or $3.04 per share compared to the third quarter 2025 net income of $247 million or $2.73 per share.”
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Figure
Free cash flow was $225 million after $472 million in cash from operations and $247 million in capital expenditures.
Source quote
“Cash provided by operations was $472 million, and after $247 million at CapEx, free cash flow was $225 million.”
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Guidance
PKG expects fourth quarter earnings of $2.81 per share, excluding special items.
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Figure
The company expects the majority of spending over the next 24 months to come from gas turbine installations.
Source quote
“Really, the big spend over the next 24 months will come from the gas turbine installations.”
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Figure
The contribution from the acquired Greif business was $0.24 favorable year over year, generating $0.13 of earnings this year versus an $0.11 loss last year in the first month of ownership.
4 more
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Guidance
Improved integration and better mill operational performance have moved the company well ahead of its synergy targets.
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Figure
The fourth quarter estimate is $0.72, bringing the annual total to $1.48.
Source quote
“Our fourth quarter estimate is $0.72 now, totaling $1.48 for the year.”
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Guidance
Freight costs are expected to increase across the business because diesel fuel prices are currently above third quarter levels.
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Key theme
You said pricing is ahead of your expectations.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“A silver lining is that we got ourselves back on solid footing from an inventory standpoint in time for what looks like a pretty strong fourth quarter from a volume...”
“Export sales volume of container board was 5,000 tons higher than the second quarter of 2026 and 10,000 tons lower than the third quarter of 2025 and remains at a...”
“From the cost side, in addition to increasing freight, we saw significant increases in recycled fiber, purchased power, and chemical costs during the quarter, and we expect these input costs...”
Full figures
Q3 2026 figures are not available yet: the company files its quarterly report (10-Q) a few weeks after the call. This page compares what management said; the figures are added when the report is filed.
Topics
Most discussed now
- New This acquisition is working out very well for it, in large part due to the quality and performance of Packaging Corporation of America's...
- A silver lining is that Packaging Corporation of America got itself back on solid footing from an inventory standpoint in time for what...
- Looking at Packaging Corporation of America's packaging business, EBITDA, excluding special items in the third quarter for 2026 of $578…
- Give you an update on the annual outage schedule and earnings impact for the rest of the year.
- Prices for container board and corrugated products are expected to improve as Packaging Corporation of America continues to implement…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Packaging Corporation of America had at least 5 distinct utility power outage situation at, a number of the mills.
- Fading As Mark alluded to earlier, Packaging Corporation of America was able to meaningfully increase its inventory during the first week of July…
- Fading Export sales volume of containerboard was 30 thousand tons lower than the first quarter of 26 and 22 thousand tons...
- Fading Export containerboard prices were $0.01 above last year's second quarter and $0.02 above the first quarter of 26.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Packaging Corporation of America reported third-quarter net sales of $2.6 billion in 2026, compared to $2.3 billion in 2025, with reported diluted earnings per share of $2.93.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Packaging Corporation of America reported second-quarter net sales of $2.5 billion in 2026, compared to $2.2 billion in 2025.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Packaging Corporation of America reported first-quarter net sales of $2.4 billion in 2026, compared to $2.1 billion in 2025.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
The company approved new forms of equity award agreements for performance units and RSUs starting February 25, 2026, with terms substantially similar to the prior year's forms.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Packaging Corporation of America reported full-year 2025 net sales of $9.0 billion, up from $8.4 billion in 2024, and net income of $774 million, compared to $805 million in 2024.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Restructuring costs; Impairment · SEC 8-K
Packaging Corporation of America will shut down the W2 machine at its Wallula mill, resulting in pre-tax restructuring charges of approximately $205 million and a reduction of 250,000 tons of annual production capacity.
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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fourth quarter
supply customers despite maintenance outages
Source quote
“and we're in a good position to supply our customers in the fourth quarter, even with three of our container board mills down for their annual maintenance outages.”
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fourth quarter
completion of the winder project coming online
Source quote
“Our mill production reflects improved output at Jackson, even ahead of the completion of the winder project coming online in the fourth quarter as we continue to maximize the performance of the paper machines.”
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fourth quarter
realize almost all of the remainder of the second increase
Source quote
“We expect to realize almost all of the remainder of the second increase in the fourth quarter.”
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Q4 and Q1
realization of the $70 increase
Source quote
“Realization of the $70 increase will be split between Q4 and Q1 and skewed more towards Q1 in terms of timing.”
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fourth quarter
systems work completion
Source quote
“l systems work will be completed during the fourth quarter, which will further improve our visibility and day-to-day management of the business.”