ATI Inc. (ATI) · wyniki II kw. 2026 i wycena

Przy wzroście 6,1% rocznie (3-letni wzrost przychodów) wartość godziwa z modelu to $33.34 na akcję — kurs jest o 423% powyżej niej. Obecna cena zakłada wzrost o 25,9% rocznie.

1. Prognoza

   ATI projects third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.31 to $1.37 based on expected adjusted EBITDA of $305 million to $315 million.

   Cytat ze źródła

   “As shown on Slide #10, in the third quarter of 2026, we anticipate adjusted EBITDA of $305 million to $315 million, translating to adjusted EPS of $1.31 to $1.37.”

2. Liczba

   Adjusted EBITDA increased 37% year-over-year, marking ATI's strongest quarterly EBITDA performance since 2007.

   Cytat ze źródła

   “Adjusted EBITDA increased 37% year-over-year, making this ATI's strongest quarterly EBITDA performance since 2007.”

3. Słabnie

   Full-year consolidated incremental margin guidance is now approximately 50%.

   Cytat ze źródła

   “Adjusted free cash flow was $75 million, a meaningful improvement from last year and a clear indicator of strong cash... Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20%, up more than 300 basis points year-over-year. This performance reflects more than favorable market conditions.”

Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — one of the biggest drops of any company call. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.

Zdania, które wpłynęły na ton

“As a result, we've increased our expectation for full year defense growth to the high teens, reflecting growing momentum across the portfolio.”

“Adjusted EBITDA and EPS exceeded the high end of our guidance, while we expanded our consolidated margins and generated strong cash flow.”

“Excluding a $10 million asset sale gain in AA&S, underlying operating performance still exceeded the high end of our guidance by nearly $20 million, reflecting stronger pricing and mix.”