ATI Inc. (ATI) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At 6.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $33.34 a share — the stock trades 463% above it. Today's price assumes 26.9% growth a year.

1. Guidance

   ATI projects third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.31 to $1.37 based on expected adjusted EBITDA of $305 million to $315 million.

   Source quote

   “As shown on Slide #10, in the third quarter of 2026, we anticipate adjusted EBITDA of $305 million to $315 million, translating to adjusted EPS of $1.31 to $1.37.”

2. Figure

   Adjusted EBITDA increased 37% year-over-year, marking ATI's strongest quarterly EBITDA performance since 2007.

   Source quote

   “Adjusted EBITDA increased 37% year-over-year, making this ATI's strongest quarterly EBITDA performance since 2007.”

3. Fading

   Full-year consolidated incremental margin guidance is now approximately 50%.

   Source quote

   “Adjusted free cash flow was $75 million, a meaningful improvement from last year and a clear indicator of strong cash... Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20%, up more than 300 basis points year-over-year. This performance reflects more than favorable market conditions.”

Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — one of the biggest drops of any company call. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.

Sentences that drove the tone

“As a result, we've increased our expectation for full year defense growth to the high teens, reflecting growing momentum across the portfolio.”

“Adjusted EBITDA and EPS exceeded the high end of our guidance, while we expanded our consolidated margins and generated strong cash flow.”

“Excluding a $10 million asset sale gain in AA&S, underlying operating performance still exceeded the high end of our guidance by nearly $20 million, reflecting stronger pricing and mix.”