TSLA US S&P 500NASDAQ-100Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $390.84 · 2026-11-11
Tesla, Inc. designs, manufactures, sells, and leases fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems. The company provides products and services to individual and commercial customers globally, including artificial intelligence software and autonomous driving technology. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-01-29)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 21 Oct 2026 and 22 Jul 2026
Net income down 29.4% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
−29.4%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 787.0M vs 1.11B
Revenue −0.7%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is −42.7%, so it is not just seasonal.
Why Against the same quarter last year (−42.7%), net income was impacted by a mark-to-market reduction of $142 million from the SpaceX holding, which was offset by a Bitcoin mark-to-market gain of approximately $290 million.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 56% of company calls
Answers to analysts: cautious, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Tesla revised its annual CapEx guidance to approximately $20 billion for the current year, funded primarily from cash flows from operations.
Valuation
Is Tesla, Inc. undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 5.2% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $36.71 a share — the stock trades 965% above it. Today's price assumes 42.9% growth a year.
Current price
$390.84
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+42.9% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$36.71
Buy below
$27.53
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
Tesla revised its annual CapEx guidance to approximately $20 billion because of efficient capital deployment and plans to fund it primarily from cash flows from operations.
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Key theme
The company expects it will take at least a year, or more, to reach an annualized production rate of 20,000 units a week.
Source quote
“But I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer, to get to that annualized rate, to get to 20,000 units a week.”
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Guidance
The company stated it sees a path to reach its 30 cent target.
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Figure
Tesla plans to unlock 24 across 7 operation and go to higher speed roads during the rest of the year.
Source quote
“And we will see that over the rest of this year, we'll unlock 24 across 7 operation, go to higher speed roads.”
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Key theme
Tesla expects to begin delivering Optimist to companies outside of Tesla around the end of next year once current issues are resolved.
Source quote
“I do expect these issues to be solved around the end of next year. So that's the time to expect when we're delivering Optimist to companies outside of Tesla.”
3 more
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Figure
Over 75% of North American deliveries in Q3 included a paid FSD subscription sign-up, which is approximately 20% higher than in Q2.
Source quote
“In Q3, over 75% of deliveries in North America included a sign-up for paid FSD subscription at the time of delivery, which is approximately 20% higher than Q2.”
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Figure
Services and other margins improved from 14.1% to 15.9%, reaching an all-time high and indicating higher profitability in those segments.
Source quote
“Services and other margins improved sequentially from 14.1% to 15.9%, an all-time high.”
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Figure
Tesla is almost sold out of all 2027 mega packs and is ramping production as quickly as possible to meet demand.
Source quote
“We're actually almost sold out of all mega packs for 2027 and we're ramping production as quickly as possible to meet demand.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“And so, you know, our capex for the next few years would continue to expand as we add more robot taxi fleet, we expand our production capacity for Optimus, install...”
“Our priority is progressing the density and expansion of the network through vehicles that provide the best experience, like the cyber cap.”
“Services and other margins improved sequentially from 14.1% to 15.9%, an all-time high.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 28.05B | 28.24B | −0.7% | 28.09B | −0.2% |
| Gross profit | 5.49B | 4.75B | +15.6% | 5.05B | +8.7% |
| Operating income | 718.0M | 398.0M | +80.4% | 1.62B | −55.8% |
| Net income | 787.0M | 1.11B | −29.4% | 1.37B | −42.7% |
| EPS | 0.22 | 0.32 | −31.2% | 0.39 | −43.6% |
| P/E today 393.6 | 389.9 | 389.4 | +0.5 | 306.7 | +83.2 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Based on the preliminary data which Tesla has gathered, it believes that it was the number one selling BEV in Europe...
- There's a lot of like little things that you realize actually what an incredible thing the human hand is at...
- Tesla is actively working with the regulators in China because I don't know if you saw this, but it did release...
- At the beginning uh like definitely the leaf
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped With Starlink, you can watch 4K live sports in the car and with very low cost per gigabyte of data...
- Dropped You really need fast-acting advanced power electronics to be able to smooth out these massive changes in power, especially during...
- Dropped It's not just like the facts are on briefly, but for balancing power from wind generation and solar generation, batteries...
- Fading Clearly, this is a significant demand driver.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The company reported total revenues of $28.046 billion for Q3 2026, which represents a slight decrease from $28.095 billion in Q3 2025.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Tesla, Inc. published its results of operations and financial condition press release on October 2, 2026, as disclosed in the 8-K filing.
- Material agreement; Agreement terminated; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
Tesla entered into credit agreements on September 29, 2026, including a $20.0 billion term loan facility, an $8.0 billion five-year revolving facility, and a $2.0 billion 364-day revolving facility.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Tesla, Inc. released its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, on July 22, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Tesla, Inc. published its results of operations and financial condition press release on July 2, 2026, as disclosed in the 8-K filing.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Tesla, Inc. released its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, on April 22, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Tesla, Inc. published its results of operations and financial condition press release on April 2, 2026, as disclosed in the 8-K filing.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Tesla, Inc. released its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, on January 28, 2026.
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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within a few months
EU-wide approval for FSD
Source quote
“It's hard to predict, but maybe within a few months, but I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1.”
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approximately 2030
reaching a goal of five million vehicles a year
Source quote
“We're aiming for five million vehicles a year by approximately 2030.”
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2027
sold out of all mega packs
Source quote
“We're actually almost sold out of all mega packs for 2027 and we're ramping production as quickly as possible to meet demand.”
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at least a year, maybe a little longer
time to get to an annualized rate of 20,000 units a week for Optimus
Source quote
“But I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer, to get to that annualized rate, to get to 20,000 units a week.”
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around the end of next year
solving issues with AI, electromechanical design, and reliability for Optimus to deliver to companies outside of Tesla
Source quote
“I do expect these issues to be solved around the end of next year.”