Post Holdings (POST) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At 11.7% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $129.60 a share — the stock trades 38% below it. Today's price assumes 9.3% growth a year.

1. Guidance

   The company adjusted its fiscal 2026 outlook by approximately $80 million for items affecting comparability to ensure a comparable transition into fiscal 2027.

2. Dropped

   Despite Middle East conflict headwinds, prior adjusted EBITDA guidance was maintained after a diversified, above-expectations second quarter.

   Source quote

   “However, given new headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, we maintained our previous adjusted EBITDA guidance. The key highlights are that our diversified portfolio delivered strong performance in Q2 and adjusted EBITDA above expectations. Meanwhile, we continued aggressive share repurchases, and fiscal year to date, we have reduced our share count by 15%.”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“And then the other opportunity is as we continue integrating the footprint, we see more opportunities of actually expanding private label as we leverage the full footprint that we have.”

“So it's a tough situation to try and take pricing in to equalize those when the markets are suggesting price of eggs from a market standpoint is much lower than...”

“We are very confident that we have a lot of opportunities in pet, and we're actually starting to now work on the pipeline of those opportunities.”