The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At 2.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $76.46 a share — the stock trades 74% above it. Today's price assumes 6.6% growth a year.

1. Guidance ↑

   Freight and commodity costs drove inflation above initial expectations coming into the year.

   Source quote

   “And when you think of that sort of underlying mid-single-digit inflation, we're seeing an increase from our initial expectations coming into the year, largely driven by freight and some commodity...”

2. Guidance

   The company revised its outlook to mid-single digits for the total company and total venture following the addition of Uncrustables.

3. Fading

   Peanut butter activity is normal after intentionally not repeating some earlier promotions.

   Source quote

   “You know, we are not seeing unusual activity In the peanut butter category, specifically, obviously, we are--we are the leader... ...component of our frozen handheld and spreads and what I would tell you is you know, having chosen not to repeat some of the promotional activity the behavior of the categories themselves as well as within them continues to be mostly rational. And some of the softness that you have seen in the peanut butter category was in part driven by some volatility.”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Our strategy is working and the strong foundation we have established gives us confidence in our ability to deliver long-term growth and increase shareholder value.”

“And so just the combination of all of those things has led to also stronger distribution gains and our Away From Home business is performing well, still building out our...”

“And then Milk-Bone also had a good quarter, returning it to volume growth that was supported by innovation, winning in the soft and chewy segment, good marketing there.”