PGR US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Progressive Corporation (PGR) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $233.53 · 2026-11-11
Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company that provides personal and commercial auto, residential property, and specialty insurance for vehicles like motorcycles and watercraft. The company serves individual consumers and business owners across the United States. Its operations include insurance, investment, and related support services. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-03-02)
Results Q2 2026 vs Q4 2025 · previous quarter · published 4 Aug 2026 and 3 Mar 2026
Net income up 12.2% on the previous quarter. Management sounded cautious, though noticeably more positive answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
+12.2%
Net income vs Q4 2025
Net income 3.31B vs 2.95B
Revenue +3.8%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is +4.3% — part of the move on last quarter is seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Cautious
Among the least upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: very upbeat, and more positive than the script.
Last call it was different: script and answers matched.
3 · What stood out
Progressive became the largest U.S. personal auto writer in the trailing 12-month period by direct premiums written after capturing approximately 75% of total industry premium growth in 2025.
Valuation
Is Progressive Corporation undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $442.65 a share — the stock trades 47% below it. Today's price assumes 0.7% growth a year.
Current price
$233.53
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+0.7% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$442.65
Buy below
$331.99
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 47%
Price vs buy-below price
Undervalued 30%
Read between the lines
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Key theme
The average number of carriers returning rates on comparative raters increased by just over 30% since the first quarter of 2024, which lowers expected win rates.
Source quote
“Since the first quarter of 2024, the average number of carriers returning rates on comparative raters has increased by just over 30%, which naturally lowers expected win rates.”
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Figure
PGR grew twice as fast as the private passenger auto industry over 10 years with a combined ratio 7 points lower due to its ability to match rate to risk.
Source quote
“It's our reverence for data and ability to match rate to risk that have enabled us to grow twice as fast as the private passenger auto industry over the past 10 years at a combined ratio that's 7 points lower.”
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Figure
Progressive aims to grow as fast as possible while maintaining a metric at or below 96 to ensure high-quality customer service.
Source quote
“Ask any Progressive person, and they'll tell you that our objective is to grow as fast as possible at or below a 96 while delivering high-quality customer service.”
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Figure
Property direct written premium grew by 3.7x since 2015, establishing the company as a top 12 carrier in the industry.
Source quote
“Since 2015, property direct written premium has grown by 3.7x, and we are now a top 12 carrier in the industry.”
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Figure
Since 2022, total insured value increased 30% while the modeled 1 in 100-year probable maximum loss declined by nearly 33%.
Source quote
“Since 2022, total insured value has increased 30%, while our modeled 1 in 100-year probable maximum loss has declined by nearly 33%.”
3 more
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Figure
The number of states classified as healthy and well positioned for growth increased from 18 in May 2025 to 41 by June 2026.
Source quote
“In May 2025, 18 states were classified as healthy and well positioned for growth. By June 2026, this number had increased to 41 states.”
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Figure
The company reduced its high weather risk state total insured value mix by 23% to mitigate environmental risks.
Source quote
“During this time, we reduced high weather risk state total insured value mix by 23%.”
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Figure
Since launching online quoting in 2017, quote starts have grown at a 27% compound annual growth rate, increasing from just under 1 million to more than 6 million today.
Source quote
“Since launching online quoting in 2017, quote starts have grown at a 27% compound annual growth rate, increasing from just under 1 million annual quotes to more than 6 million today.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q4 2025.
Management was more positive answering analysts than in its script — usually a sign it was comfortable with the details it was asked about.
Sentences that drove the tone
“We have moved more quickly in lower weather risk states where the lower risk profile gives us greater confidence.”
“And so of course, there are risk ratios, risk-based capital, things like that, that we have to think about and have to compute when we get towards the end of...”
“In 2022, we acknowledged that property had not achieved its target margin, largely because weather losses were running above expectations.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q4 2025period end 2025-12-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.61B | 22.75B | +3.8% | 22.00B | +7.3% |
| Operating income | 4.21B | 3.68B | +14.3% | 3.98B | +5.7% |
| Net income | 3.31B | 2.95B | +12.2% | 3.17B | +4.3% |
| EPS | 5.67 | 5.02 | +12.9% | 5.40 | +5.0% |
| P/E today 11.5 | 11.0 | 11.8 | −0.8 | 15.0 | −4.0 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Progressive's objective is to provide broadly available competitive property offerings that help grow Robinson market share while meeting…
- The positioning is intentional as Progressive's people and its culture are its strongest and most durable competitive advantage and…
- Following John's update on property, Progressive will go back to Lori for some more details on how Jim's national auto team...
- Progressive's focus is on owner-occupied homes that are bundled with Progressive auto, supported by a broad property product portfolio…
- Having a reliance on two steady channels really gives it a good opportunity.
Faded since Q4 2025
- Fading My background is available on Progressive's Investor Relations site.
- Fading It doesn't include its capital allocation policy or it does not consider where Progressive can invest.
- Fading If Progressive goes back to the broader discussion of its capital deployment, if it has excess capital, it could deploy...
- Fading This means that gains and losses are more magnified than many of Progressive's peers, who run with a more significant...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The Progressive Corporation reported net income of $630 million for the month ended September 30, 2026, compared to $305 million in the same month of 2025.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
For the month ended August 31, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported net income of $951 million, a 22% decrease from $1,220 million in the same month of 2025.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
The Progressive Corporation reported net income of $961 million for the month ended July 31, 2026, compared to $1,090 million in the same month of 2025.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
The Progressive Corporation declared a quarterly common share dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on October 9, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The Progressive Corporation reported net income of $6.129 billion for the year-to-date period ended June 30, 2026, up from $5.742 billion in the same period of 2025.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
The Progressive Corporation reported net income of $1.445 billion for May 2026, up 36% from $1.065 billion in May 2025, alongside executive leadership changes.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
The Progressive Corporation reported net income of $1,087 million for the month ended April 30, 2026, up 10% from $986 million in the same month of 2025.
- Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
The Board appointed Andrew J. Quigg as CFO effective July 4, 2026, and shareholders approved the executive compensation program with 464,140,742 affirmative votes.