AFG NYSE Russell 1000 Earnings call
American Financial Group Inc. (AFG) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $161.19 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 5 Aug 2026 and 30 Apr 2026
Net income up 29.8% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+29.8%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 248.0M vs 191.0M
Revenue +9.5%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is +42.5%, so it is not just seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 62% of company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out Nothing unusual flagged this period.
Valuation
Is American Financial Group Inc. undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 5.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $167.75 a share — the stock trades 4% below it. Today's price assumes 4.6% growth a year.
Current price
$161.19
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+4.6% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$167.75
Buy below
$125.81
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 4%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 28%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
AFG expects to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2026, providing opportunities for acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases.
Source quote
“We expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2026, which provides ample opportunity for acquisitions, special dividends or share repurchases.”
-
Fading
Net written premiums grew 3% higher than the comparable period.
Source quote
“In first quarter 2026 gross and net written premiums were 6% and 3% higher, respectively, than the comparable period... Each of our Specialty Property and Casualty groups reported higher year-over-year underwriting profit. We continue to benefit from the diversification across our 36 businesses and achieved premium growth in the vast majority of them as a result of a combination of new business opportunities, a good renewal...”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“We achieved a 44% increase in underwriting profit in first 6 months of the year, while executing on opportunities to grow.”
“Craig and I are proud of our proven track record of innovation, long term value creation and a forward thinking mindset.”
“I am pleased to report that we set a new second quarter record for pretax property and casualty operating income, driven by strong underwriting margins healthy premium growth and higher...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.03B | 1.85B | +9.5% | 1.92B | +5.5% |
| Operating income | 316.0M | 239.0M | +32.2% | 229.0M | +38.0% |
| Net income | 248.0M | 191.0M | +29.8% | 174.0M | +42.5% |
| EPS | 2.99 | 2.29 | +30.6% | 2.07 | +44.4% |
| P/E today 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.1 | +0.1 | 13.9 | −1.7 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- American Financial is being deliberately cautious around social inflation exposed businesses despite the improvements that it has seen that…
- Fading Even after considering investment income, it can be tricky to analyze the components of the combined ratios separately as some...
- Longer term, American Financial continues to remain optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from its overall alternative…
- The underwriting discipline and opportunistic culture that have allowed us to produce strong results that outperform peers over the long...
- American Financial is doing this while consistently achieving renewal rate increases.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading American Financial still has more work to do and remain focused on achieving rate in excess of prospective loss ratio trends.
- Fading American Financial's compelling mix of specialty insurance businesses, entrepreneurial culture, disciplined operating philosophy and an…
- Fading Craig and I thank God, American Financial's talented management team and its great employees for helping us to achieve these results.
- Fading Clearly, in things like excess liability, everybody is still challenged by the loss ratio trends there.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K