EXE US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Expand Energy (EXE) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $88.63 · 2026-11-11
Expand Energy is an independent producer of natural gas, oil, and NGL. The company operates in the Haynesville, Marcellus, and Utica Shales across Louisiana, Texas, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-18)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 27 Oct 2026 and 29 Jul 2026
Net income down 0.6% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
−0.6%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 519.0M vs 522.0M
Revenue +11.0%
2 · How management spoke
Typical
More upbeat than 54% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Expand Energy allocated $305 million to share repurchases in the third quarter, which is more than any of its peers this year.
Valuation
Is Expand Energy undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 1.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $81.07 a share — the stock trades 9% above it. Today's price assumes 2.1% growth a year.
Current price
$88.63
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+2.1% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$81.07
Buy below
$60.81
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 9%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 46%
Read between the lines
-
Key theme
Combined Expand and Twin Eagle marketing profits are expected to add $0.12 per MCFE to the fourth quarter margin.
Source quote
“The combined Expand and Twin Eagle marketing profits are expected to add $0.12 per MCFE to our fourth quarter margin.”
-
Figure
New incremental demand of around 13 BCF a day is expected to appear by year in 2028.
Source quote
“There's around 13 BCF a day of new incremental demand that will show up by year in 2028.”
-
Key theme
Production expectations for Q4 show a wide range from 7.4 to 7.6 BCF a day.
Source quote
“And you'll notice there's a relatively wide range of production expectations from 7.4 to 7.6 BCF a day for Q4.”
-
Figure
Its hedging program, which Expand Energy sees as a critical risk management tool, improved its realized prices by 46 cents per MCFE.
-
Figure
The company's cash break-even point, including dividends, is approximately $2.80 per MCF.
Source quote
“So including dividends, right, our cash break-even is about $2.80 or so per MCF.”
4 more
-
Figure
The company reached a 250, 260 level following the delivery of the 750 run rate online marketing and commercial.
Source quote
“Yeah, so we go to 250, 260. So the 250 is out when we deliver the 750 run rate online marketing and commercial.”
-
Figure
The company expects a 50% reduction in diesel usage heading into 2027 as more E-fleets are added to the program.
Source quote
“We'll actually see about a 50% reduction in our diesel usage heading into 2027 as we have more E-fleets coming into the program.”
-
Key theme
The company will be open to inorganic opportunities while remaining disciplined in its focus to address its strategic goals.
Source quote
“And so I am sure along those lines, we will be open to inorganic opportunities to do that, but we'll be very disciplined in our focus on that.”
-
Guidance
The company expects the marginal molecule to be the mechanism at which price gets set.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“And all of this set against the precipice of a structural increase in natural gas demand with rising needs for LNG, data centers, industrial projects, and broad-scale electrification.”
“I'm excited to watch Danny and the team build on this momentum.”
“Low commodity prices are pressuring free cash flow margins for many of our peers.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.29B | 2.96B | +11.0% | 2.97B | +10.8% |
| Operating income | 640.0M | 661.0M | −3.2% | 725.0M | −11.7% |
| Net income | 519.0M | 522.0M | −0.6% | 547.0M | −5.1% |
| EPS | 2.24 | 2.19 | +2.3% | 2.28 | −1.8% |
| P/E today 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.9 | −0.6 | 34.2 | −26.9 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Low commodity prices are pressuring free cash flow margins for many of Expand Energy's peers.
- Expand Energy has expanded its corporate and business development efforts to consider opportunities across the whole gas value chain to…
- Expand Energy has resiliency, with an investment-grade balance sheet, low break-evens, operational flexibility, and a disciplined hedging…
- Expand Energy has inventory-rich assets, which are diversified and adjacent to key demand centers.
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Expand Energy has a perfect culture fit in of course, they're here in its Spring complex, actually in its complex.
- Fading If you think about integrated gas supply, Expand Energy believes by having a national footprint, 1,000 customers, Twin Eagle is a...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Expand Energy reported net income of $519 million, or $2.24 per share, and net cash provided by operating activities of $1,177 million for the third quarter of 2026.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Expand Energy Corporation appointed Daniel E. Brown as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective October 26, 2026, while Michael A. Wichterich will return to his role as Non-Executive Chairman.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Sarah Grose was appointed as Vice President – Chief Accounting Officer on October 8, 2026, with an annual base salary of $325,000 and a long-term incentive target of $500,000.
- Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
- Material agreement; New financial obligation; Other events · SEC 8-K
The company filed legal opinions from Kirkland & Ellis LLP and McAfee & Taft A Professional Corporation regarding the enforceability and legality of the Notes issued in the Notes Offering.
- Director or officer change; Other events · SEC 8-K
Expand Energy Corporation completed the acquisition of Twin Eagle Holdings N.A., LLC on September 16, 2026, and Dan Turco transitioned from Executive Vice President—Marketing and Commercial to Executive Vice President of Commercial Activities.
- Material agreement; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Expand Energy Corporation priced an offering of $500,000,000 of its 5.650% senior notes due 2031 at 99.889% of their face value.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Expand Energy Corporation entered into a Merger Agreement to acquire Twin Eagle for a base purchase price of $1.25 billion, with a $62.5 million cash deposit already paid.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-29.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$118.0M
2026-09-30
Long-term investments
$264.0M
total liquidity $382.0M
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -2.8% YoY, -2.8% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 234.4M |
| Q2 2025 | 238.0M |
| Q3 2025 | 238.2M |
| Q1 2026 | 239.9M |
| Q2 2026 | 238.2M |
| Q3 2026 | 231.6M |
Shares outstanding: 231.0M (2026-10-20)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. 27 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Bought by insiders
9.0K shares
$876.5K · 7 transactions
Net direction
net buying
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
-
fourth quarter
expected addition of marketing profits to margin
Source quote
“The combined Expand and Twin Eagle marketing profits are expected to add $0.12 per MCFE to our fourth quarter margin.”
-
2027
drill probably two wells
Source quote
“We expect, you know, to drill probably two wells in 2027 there.”
-
Q4 and into the early parts of next year
continue doing that [capital allocation/share buybacks]
Source quote
“So you should expect us to continue doing that as we go to Q4 and into the early parts of next year.”
-
from 24 and into 25
results from 24 and into 25
Source quote
“If you think about our results from 24 and into 25, we've really doubled down on our continuous improvement efforts across our Appalachia business.”
-
from 25 to 26
Southwest Appalachia drilling performance
Source quote
“In fact, when you look at our Southwest Appalachia drilling performance from 25 to 26, we've seen a 20% improvement in our footage per day.”