LVS US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $40.23 · 2026-11-11
Las Vegas Sands is an American casino and resort company. It operates casino and resort properties in the United States and other markets. Source: Wikipedia
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 21 Oct 2026 and 22 Jul 2026
The language turned more cautious.
1 · Numbers
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No financial figures for this pair
2 · How management spoke
More cautious
Language tone vs last period
Language: restrained — more cautious than in Q2 2026.
3 · What stood out
Las Vegas Sands reached a 26.1% mass gaming revenue share in Macau this quarter.
Valuation
Is Las Vegas Sands undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 20.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $122.76 a share — the stock trades 67% below it. Today's price assumes 8.0% growth a year.
Current price
$40.23
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+8.0% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$122.76
Buy below
$92.07
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 67%
Price vs buy-below price
Undervalued 56%
Read between the lines
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Figure
EBITDA fell 21% to $590 million compared to $743 million reported one year ago.
Source quote
“But this quarter, the EBITDA generated was $590 million. Which sounds like a lot, but... It's down 21% from the $743 million they printed a year ago.”
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Figure
The company identifies a property as a $2.7 to $2.8 billion annual EBITDA property.
Source quote
“He views this as a $2.7 to $2.8 billion annual EBITDA property.”
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Figure
LVS reached a 26.1% mass gaming revenue share in Macau this quarter, highlighting a significant metric for the company's revenue drivers.
Source quote
“They reached a 26.1% mass gaming revenue share in Macau this quarter.”
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Key theme
The company missed expected profit by over a fifth, suggesting the core business model is breaking.
Source quote
“When a blue chip consumer discretionary stock misses by over a fifth of its expected profit, you generally assume the core business model is breaking.”
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Figure
The effective tax rate jumped to 22.5% this quarter.
4 more
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Key theme
They are capturing more than a quarter of all the mass gaming dollars in the single biggest gaming market on the planet.
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Figure
Margins in Macau fell from 31.5% to 27.3% due to an operating expense squeeze despite the company maintaining a market share of over 26%.
Source quote
“The real story in Macau, the specific reason margins compressed from 31.5 to 27.3%, despite capturing over 26% market share, is the operating expense squeeze.”
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Figure
LVS missed earnings by 20 percent because margins are compressing and the company is carrying a bloated payroll from a massive expansion.
Source quote
“They are missing earnings by 20 percent. And margins are compressing and they are carrying the bloated payroll of a massive expansion.”
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Figure
The occupancy rate was 95.8% for the quarter.
Source quote
“No, the occupancy rate was 95.8%.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Restrained — more cautious than in Q2 2026.
Sentences that drove the tone
“But if the drop and hold signals a behavioral shift, like if players are grinding less, taking one bad beat and walking away because the macro environment makes them feel...”
“But if you just look at the EBITDA decline and the margin compression, you missed the bull case entirely.”
“And that is an increase of over $50 compared to the third quarter of last year, which was already an incredibly high”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026not yet filed | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 3.15B | 3.33B | ||
| Operating income | — | 618.0M | 719.0M | ||
| Net income | — | 346.0M | 419.0M | ||
| EPS | — | 0.53 | 0.61 | ||
| P/E today 16.7 | — | 17.9 | — | 24.2 | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New The offshore trust tax is undeniably forcing mainland high rollers to pause their discretionary gaming spend.
- You generate massive amounts of free cash flow, and you use it to cannibalize your own share count.
- Las Vegas Sands knows that Macau's gross gaming revenue, the total GGR for the entire region, fell year over year for four...
- It is a fascinating and aggressive use of their investment grade balance sheet.
- New Las Vegas Sands wants to figure out what happens when the math of a mega casino simply stops working.
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Las Vegas Sands will continue to invest with discipline, with the fundamental objective of creating meaningful shareholder returns over the…
- Dropped European football globally over the years probably has not hurt, and the star power
- Dropped You had an extraordinary sporting event that captivated the world.
- Fading Singapore remains an ideal market for high value tourism spending.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Sands China intends to offer senior unsecured notes to redeem US$700 million of 2.300% senior notes due 2027 and repay the 2024 SCL Revolving Facility.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Las Vegas Sands reported net revenue of $3.22 billion and net income of $352 million for the third quarter of 2026, compared to $3.33 billion and $491 million in the same period of the prior year.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Las Vegas Sands reported net revenue of $3.15 billion and net income of $373 million for the second quarter of 2026, compared to $3.18 billion and $519 million in the same period of 2025.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
Las Vegas Sands Corp. completed an offering of $500 million in 5.300% Senior Notes due 2031 and $500 million in 5.650% Senior Notes due 2033 to redeem $1.0 billion of existing notes.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Las Vegas Sands Corp. entered into an underwriting agreement to issue and sell $500,000,000 of 5.300% Senior Notes due 2031 and $500,000,000 of 5.650% Senior Notes due 2033.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-28.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$2.86B
2026-09-30
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -6.3% YoY, -2.3% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 712.0M |
| Q2 2025 | 695.0M |
| Q3 2025 | 682.0M |
| Q1 2026 | 669.0M |
| Q2 2026 | 654.0M |
| Q3 2026 | 639.0M |
Shares outstanding: 627.0M (2026-10-21)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. 43 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
5.3M shares
$337.3M · 30 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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next quarter
worsening capacity constraint due to 500 rooms going offline for renovations
Source quote
“And Grant Chum, the CEO of Sands China, noted that this capacity constraint will actually worsen next quarter.”
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starting in the first quarter of 2027
dividend increase to 36 cents per share
Source quote
“It's going up to 36 cents per share, which is $1.44 annualized, starting in the first quarter of 2027.”
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early 2031
opening for the expansion project at Marina Bay Sands
Source quote
“They are targeting an early 2031 opening for this project.”
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Chinese New Year 2028
completion of the massive Venetian renovation
Source quote
“The massive Venetian renovation we discussed earlier won't be fully finished until Chinese New Year 2028.”