HLT US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $376.91 · 2026-11-11
Hilton Worldwide is a hospitality company that operates a portfolio of luxury, full-service, and limited-service hotel brands, as well as timeshare properties. The company provides management, franchise, and ownership services for its properties across various countries and territories. It also operates a guest loyalty program for its customers. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-11)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 27 Oct 2026 and 28 Jul 2026
Net income up 11.2% on the previous quarter. Management sounded very upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
+11.2%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 536.0M vs 482.0M
Revenue −0.5%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is +27.6%, so it is not just seasonal.
Why Against the same quarter last year (+27.6%), net income rose primarily because higher RevPAR and RefPAR were driven by strong business and group demand, continued rate gains, and favorable demand from social events and company meetings.
2 · How management spoke
Very upbeat
More upbeat than 94% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, but clearly less so than the script.
The step down under questioning is bigger than last call.
3 · What stood out
Hilton Worldwide's system-wide new development construction starts increased over 40 percent year-over-year in the quarter, with all regions independently rising more than 20 percent.
Valuation
Is Hilton Worldwide undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 11.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $191.32 a share — the stock trades 97% above it. Today's price assumes 19.1% growth a year.
Current price
$376.91
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+19.1% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$191.32
Buy below
$143.49
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 97%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 163%
Management expects
Growth +4.25% · from the Q3 2026 report: “The company expects full-year RevPAR growth of 4% to 4.5% driven by continued business strength, particularly in the U.S.”
A guidance figure for growth, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Guidance
The company expects adjusted EBITDA of between $4.06 billion and $4.08 billion and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $9.07 and $9.13 cents.
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Guidance
The company expects full-year RevPAR growth of 4% to 4.5% driven by continued business strength, particularly in the U.S.
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Guidance
The company remains on track to return $3.5 billion to shareholders for the full year due to free cash flow generation.
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Key theme
Systemwide RevPar increased 5.8% year-over-year for the third quarter because both rate and occupancy growth exceeded expectations.
Source quote
“For the third quarter, Systemwide RevPar increased 5.8% year-over-year, with rate and occupancy growth both ahead of expectations.”
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Guidance
The company expects to return approximately $3.5 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in 2026.
4 more
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Figure
HLT has more rooms under construction than any other hotel company, accounting for nearly 20% of industry share and three and a half times its share of existing supply.
Source quote
“Nearly half of our pipeline is under construction, and we continue to have more rooms under construction than any other hotel company, accounting for nearly 20% of industry share and three and a half times our share of existing supply.”
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Guidance
HLT expects fourth quarter net unit additions to exceed third quarter results, targeting the midpoint of its 6% to 7% range for 2026 and consistent annual growth over several years.
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Guidance
Full-year RevPAR in the region is now expected to decline by a low double-digit percentage due to the ongoing conflict affecting the fourth quarter high season and challenging year-over-year comparisons.
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Figure
Net unit growth reached 6.0% with 27,000 new rooms opened in the quarter, marking the highest quarter of organic openings in the company's history.
Source quote
“Turning to development, as Chris mentioned, for the quarter we saw net unit growth of 6.0% with the opening of 27,000 rooms in the quarter, the highest quarter of organic openings in our history.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 96% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Our award-winning brands, strong commercial engines, and powerful partnerships continue to further increase industry-leading market share, while a culture of innovation creates additional growth opportunities.”
“Because our brands drive RevPar index premiums, we believe there is significant opportunity to continue growing through conversions, with Europe being a strong example of that opportunity.”
“This will be driven by continued net unit growth, new brand growth, RevPar index gains, and incremental non-RevPar business opportunities.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.33B | 3.34B | −0.5% | 3.12B | +6.6% |
| Operating income | 909.0M | 858.0M | +5.9% | 777.0M | +17.0% |
| Net income | 536.0M | 482.0M | +11.2% | 420.0M | +27.6% |
| EPS | 2.37 | 2.10 | +12.9% | 1.78 | +33.1% |
| P/E today 50.0 | 42.9 | 48.5 | −5.6 | 37.7 | +5.2 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Hilton Worldwide's award-winning brands, strong commercial engines, and powerful partnerships continue to further increase industry-leading…
- Leisure transient RevPar was up 1.6% as demand normalized following a strong summer travel period.
- I'd say really continuing to be driven by business transient, where Hilton Worldwide is seeing really, really strong growth both in large...
- Hilton Worldwide feels like it has made really, you heard some of the data on recent performance.
- Interesting data points is this year
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped In the Americas outside the U.S., second quarter RevPAR increased 4.6% year-over-year driven by strong group and business travel demand...
- Fading Leisure transient RevPAR was up 1.6%, supported by World Cup demand exceeding expectations, but offset by unfavorable holiday shifts and...
- Fading Little bit slower just people getting their engines
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Hilton reported a diluted EPS of $2.37 for the third quarter of 2026, compared to $1.78 in the same period of 2025, with net income of $536 million.
- Listing notice; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. announced plans to transfer its common stock listing from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq on November 5, 2026, while maintaining its HLT ticker symbol.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. issued a press release on July 28, 2026, regarding its operational results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
Stockholders approved the Hilton Amended and Restated 2017 Omnibus Incentive Plan, authorizing 846,000 additional shares and extending the plan's term by 10 years until May 14, 2036.
- Material agreement; New financial obligation; Other events · SEC 8-K
Hilton Domestic Operating Company Inc. announced an offering of $1 billion in 5.500% Senior Notes due 2031 to repay $450 million of borrowings and for general corporate purposes.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. announced that Christopher W. Silcock intends to retire in the first quarter of 2027, leading to leadership changes for Laura Fuentes and Chris Wilroy in 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. issued a press release on April 28, 2026, regarding its operational results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.
- Material agreement · SEC 8-K
On March 18, 2026, Hilton Domestic Operating Company Inc. entered into Amendment No. 12 to its Credit Agreement, extending the maturity date of the senior secured revolving credit facility.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-29.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$774.0M
2026-09-30
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -4.3% YoY, -1.3% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 240.0M |
| Q2 2025 | 237.0M |
| Q3 2025 | 234.0M |
| Q1 2026 | 229.0M |
| Q2 2026 | 227.0M |
| Q3 2026 | 224.0M |
Shares outstanding: 222.5M (2026-10-22)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 60 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
7.7K shares
$2.4M · 3 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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2027
continued REVPAR outperformance
Source quote
“Strength in travel demand supported by favorable macro trends is driving REVPAR outperformance, a trend we expect to continue into 2027.”
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full year
return $3.5 billion to shareholders
Source quote
“Together, these drivers support meaningful free cash flow generation and shareholder returns, and we remain on track to return $3.5 billion to shareholders for the full year.”
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full year
REVPAR growth of 4% to 4.5%
Source quote
“For the full year, we now expect REVPAR growth of 4% to 4.5% as business transient momentum carries into the fourth quarter, particularly in the U.S., where supportive policy increased private sector investment, including AI, and ongoing public infrastructure spending are supporting demand.”
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next several years
strong REVPAR growth
Source quote
“We expect continued growth in GDP and NRFI together with historically low industry supply growth to support strong REVFAR growth over the next several years.”
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full year
mid-single digit growth and signings
Source quote
“In the quarter, we signed approximately 30,000 rooms and are on pace to deliver mid-single digit growth and signings for the full year, driven by strong signings in EMEA only nine months into the year.”