The Estée Lauder Companies (EL) · Q3 2026 results and valuation

At −1.8% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $36.50 a share — the stock trades 208% above it. Today's price assumes 13.7% growth a year.

1. Guidance ↑

   I would say, you know, this is why Estée Lauder Companies has the confidence to raise the guidance for the year based on the strong start...

2. Guidance

   For organic sales growth, Estée Lauder Companies now expects to deliver 4% to 5.5%, up from 3% to 5% previously, and an acceleration from the 3% in fiscal 26.

3. Figure

   Gross margin expanded 240 basis points, operating margin expanded 480 basis points, and diluted EPS grew 125%.

Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 93% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.

Sentences that drove the tone

“In the quarter, organic net sales grew 6%, led by strong double-digit growth in fragrance and mid-single-digit growth in skin care, supported by robust innovation.”

“For operating margin, we now expect 170 to 250 basis point expansion, up from 150 to 230 basis points, marking an overstepped change in profitability on top of the 320...”

“In Western European markets, our France retail sales grew over four times faster than the industry, driving strong share gains while we also outperformed the industry in the US.”