AJG US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $282.01 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter
Net income down 60.6% on the previous quarter, guidance cut. The language turned more cautious.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
−60.6%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Guidance cut
Net income 324.0M vs 823.0M
Revenue −15.9%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is −12.0% — part of the move on last quarter is seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
More cautious
Language tone vs last period
Language: cautious — more cautious than in Q1 2026.
3 · What stood out
Figure
The brokerage and risk management segments grew through a two-pronged strategy of organic growth and acquisitions.
Valuation
Is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $132.66 a share — the stock trades 113% above it. Today's price assumes 19.7% growth a year.
Current price
$282.01
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+19.7% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$132.66
Buy below
$99.49
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 113%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 183%
Read between the lines
-
Key theme
Underlying margins grew on productivity and quality gains, though brokerage margin details were deferred until later.
Source quote
“That said, when I do, you'll quickly see that our productivity and quality strategic pillar delivered strong underlying margin expansion... It's better for me to defer comments on our brokerage EBITAC margin until I get to page seven of the CFO Commentary. Moving to page six.”
-
Guidance ↓
Reinsurance outlook was lowered slightly but remains solid at 9%.
Source quote
“Then maybe just as a follow-up, just on the reinsurance side, obviously still very good growth, and the outlook was lowered a little bit, but still solid at the 9%.”
-
Fading
AJG's CFO reduced CFO commentary time from 5 minutes to 3 minutes, signaling less emphasis on detailed financial discussion this quarter.
Source quote
“I'll then spend about 5 minutes on the CFO commentary document we Today, I'll spend about 3 minutes flipping page by page through our earnings release and give some quick highlights. Overall, the punchlines you'll hear today, and you've probably already seen that in your review of our information, we are right in line and in many cases, better than what we forecasted in our March IR Day.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Cautious — more cautious than in Q1 2026.
Sentences that drove the tone
“AI-related infrastructure, including data centers, difficult liability risks, and other emerging specialty exposures, often do not fit neatly in admitted markets.”
“Casualty remains more disciplined, particularly for U.S.-focused risks, given loss cost trends and prior year development.”
“Every other past soft market, the market has dropped like a brick across every line all at once.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.00B | 4.76B | −15.9% | 3.22B | +24.2% |
| Operating income | 414.0M | 1.04B | −60.3% | 473.0M | −12.5% |
| Net income | 324.0M | 823.0M | −60.6% | 368.0M | −12.0% |
| EPS | 1.25 | 3.16 | −60.4% | 1.40 | −10.7% |
| P/E today 37.7 | 38.1 | 35.0 | +3.1 | 48.4 | −10.3 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New Initially looked at and announced
- In the first three quarters of 2025, its brokerage segment earned investment income on the funds Arthur J. Gallagher & is holding to...
- When Arthur J. Gallagher & does a large deal like AssuredPartners, it can estimate synergies on it understands how being better together…
- These young people validate faster than most people think.
- Arthur J. Gallagher & is always open to recruit new seasoned producers, and it is loading the field with interns.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading These percentages incorporate all the information Pat just provided, such as net new business wins, customer buying behaviors, the rate...
- Fading That's an amazing quarter and demonstrates Arthur J. Gallagher &'s 4 strategic pillars are delivering terrific shareholder value.
- Fading The gross up of the revenues or and expenses in some branches and the netting in other branches was an...
- Fading The old accounting on AssuredPartners, sometimes they put some branches would put a co-broker as an expense versus a contra...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K