ERIE US S&P 500 Earnings call
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $272.18 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 31 Jul 2026 and 24 Apr 2026
Net income up 19.8% on the previous quarter. Management sounded cautious, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+19.8%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 180.3M vs 150.5M
Revenue +7.7%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is +3.2% — part of the move on last quarter is seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Cautious
Among the least upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Figure
ERIE’s retention ratio dropped slightly to 87.5%, signaling a small slip in how well the company keeps customers.
Valuation
Is Erie Indemnity undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $243.43 a share — the stock trades 12% above it. Today's price assumes 11.0% growth a year.
Current price
$272.18
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+11.0% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$243.43
Buy below
$182.58
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 12%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 49%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
Erie rolled out ErieSecure Auto in Pennsylvania in May and is targeting savings for eligible customers instead of broad rate cuts.
Source quote
“Other growth initiatives include targeted savings opportunities for eligible customers through programs such as teenSMART, both of which Tim will discuss... We continued the rollout of ErieSecure Auto, which was effective in our largest state of Pennsylvania in May. We remain focused on pricing discipline, implementing targeted rate reductions where indicated, but we aren't broadly lowering rates to drive...”
-
Fading
Higher premiums are challenging growth by pressuring customer behavior, while policies in force and retention reflect a more competitive landscape.
Source quote
“Following the period of significant rate increases across the industry, growth continues to be challenging. With significantly lower catastrophe and weather-related losses in the first quarter of 2026, the underwriting performance of the core business of the exchange continued to be more evident in contrast to the elevated weather activity we experienced a year ago. Higher premiums are impacting customer behavior and measures like policies in force and retention reflect a more competitive landscape.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Improved underwriting results and strong investment performance contributed to an increase in policyholder surplus at the end of June to approximately $10.7 billion from approximately $10.1 billion at year-end 2025,...”
“Increases in both periods were primarily driven by higher agent incentive compensation resulting from improved underwriting profitability as well as the growth in direct and affiliated assumed written premium.”
“While catastrophe losses impacted the combined ratio by 15 points, the losses were much more in line with historical experience and well below the 22-point impact we experienced in the...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.09B | 1.01B | +7.7% | 1.06B | +2.8% |
| Operating income | 204.1M | 166.8M | +22.4% | 199.2M | +2.5% |
| Net income | 180.3M | 150.5M | +19.8% | 174.7M | +3.2% |
| P/E | — | — | — | — | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- It gives it more flexibility, supports greater pricing sophistication and helps it better meet the needs of customers and agents...
- Erie Indemnity is also seeing encouraging results from its new online quoting platform.
- While catastrophe losses impacted the combined ratio by 15 points, the losses were much more in line with historical experience...
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading The primary drivers of the combined ratio improvements are twofold.
- Fading This is a more streamlined modern quoting experience designed to move prospects through the process more efficiently.
- Fading Erie Indemnity expects to introduce Erie Secure Auto in four additional states this quarter with continued expansion planned throughout the…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Shareholder vote results; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; 5.05 · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K