AIG US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
American International Group (AIG) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $82.85 · 2026-11-11
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 3 Nov 2026 and 7 Aug 2026
Net income down 10.4% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
−10.4%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 849.0M vs 948.0M
Revenue +5.1%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is +62.0%; the dip on last quarter is small next to the change on last year.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
More upbeat than 64% of company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Figure
Turning to American International's third quarter financial results, adjusted after-tax income per diluted share was $2.06, and adjusted after-tax…
Valuation
Is American International Group undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At −3.7% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $51.95 a share — the stock trades 59% above it. Today's price assumes 2.8% growth a year.
Current price
$82.85
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+2.8% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$51.95
Buy below
$38.97
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 59%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 113%
Read between the lines
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Key theme
Today's remarks related to net premiums written growth are presented on a constant dollar basis.
Source quote
“Finally, today's remarks related to net premiums written growth are presented on a constant dollar basis. The reconciliation of such measures to the most comparable GAAP figures is included in our earnings release, financial supplement, and earnings presentation, all of which are available on our website at AIG.com. Please refer to page 25 of the earnings presentation for reconciliation of such metrics.”
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Key theme
Net investment income on an adjusted pre-tax income basis was $1.1 billion, which Keith will discuss in further detail shortly.
Source quote
“Net investment income on an adjusted pre-tax income basis was $1.1 billion, which Keith will discuss in further detail shortly. Global personal insurance net premiums written increased 9% from the prior year quarter, driven by growth in our high net worth and accident and health businesses. Finally, we returned $787 million in capital to our shareholders in the quarter, including $527 million in share repurchases and $260 million in dividends.”
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Guidance
Based on the progress American International has made to date, subject to market conditions, it expects its full year 2026 expense ratio to be approximately 30.5%.
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Guidance
American International expects fourth quarter buybacks to be at a similar level to the third quarter, bringing full year share purchases to approximately $2.2 billion subject to market conditions.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Growing A &H by deepening our client relationships has been a highly successful strategy, leading to meaningful new business wins and contributing to our growth.”
“We are building on our financial strength by deploying capital selectively towards attractive growth opportunities, organizing more closely around our clients, and investing in the exceptional talent and capabilities needed...”
“Today, the sector is volatile, with elevated loss activity and inflation continuing to drive loss costs higher, yet new capacity is pushing overall market rates lower.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.44B | 7.08B | +5.1% | 6.35B | +17.2% |
| Operating income | 1.12B | 1.26B | −11.5% | 714.0M | +56.7% |
| Net income | 849.0M | 948.0M | −10.4% | 524.0M | +62.0% |
| EPS | 1.60 | 1.78 | −10.1% | 0.93 | +72.0% |
| P/E today 12.7 | 12.1 | 13.6 | −1.5 | 14.6 | −2.5 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- General insurance net investment income was $1 billion, up 9% year-over -year, driven by the core fixed income portfolio as...
- The accident year combined ratio, XCAT, was 88.4%.
- Net premiums written increased 8% from the prior year quarter, or 10% excluding North America property, reflecting growth across American…
- That's where American International's diversified global portfolio becomes a meaningful competitive advantage, giving us the flexibility to…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Fading Underwriting income increased 10% year-over-year to $686 million, driven by improved accident year underwriting results and more favorable…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K