ACEL NYSE Earnings call
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL) · Q1 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $13.98 · 2026-11-11
Results Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025 · previous quarter · published 5 May 2026 and 4 Mar 2026
Net income down 9.2% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
−9.2%
Net income vs Q4 2025
Outlook given
Net income 14.7M vs 16.2M
Revenue +3.0%
2 · How management spoke
Typical
More upbeat than 61% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.
Last call it was different: the answers were less upbeat than the script.
3 · What stood out Nothing unusual flagged this period.
Valuation
Is Accel Entertainment, Inc. undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 11.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $15.71 a share — the stock trades 11% below it. Today's price assumes 9.9% growth a year.
Current price
$13.98
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+9.9% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$15.71
Buy below
$11.78
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 11%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 19%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
Capital spending is normalizing in 2026 while developing markets scale profitably, so free cash flow is expected to keep growing.
Source quote
“With CapEx normalizing in 2026 and our developing markets scaling profitably, we expect free cash flow to continue to grow and view this as a key priority.”
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Figure
Nebraska delivered outstanding results with revenue increasing 57% year-over-year and total average location hold per day up 57%.
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Fading
Adjusted EBITDA rose 19% year-over-year to a record $56 million, lifted by strong core markets, developing-market contributions, and the continued ramp at Fairmount Park.
Source quote
“Adjusted EBITDA increased 19% year-over-year to a record $56 million. Growth was driven by continued strength in our core markets, incremental contributions from developing markets, and the continued ramp at Fairmount Park. Importantly, adjusted EBITDA grew meaningfully faster than revenue, reflecting expense discipline and operating leverage across the platform.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q1 2026. Ring: Q4 2025.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“I'm incredibly proud of what this team has built over the past 17 years, and I have full confidence in Mark and the entire Accel leadership team to continue to...”
“That is a key driver of our next phase of margin expansion and profitability growth at Accel, and it is what gets me most excited as I prepare to step...”
“Our underlying operating performance was solid and growth was essentially in line with our strong revenue performance.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-03-31)
| Metric | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Q4 2025period end 2025-12-31 | Change | Q1 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 351.6M | 341.4M | +3.0% | 323.9M | +8.5% |
| Operating income | 27.1M | 29.7M | −8.7% | 26.0M | +4.3% |
| Net income | 14.7M | 16.2M | −9.2% | 14.6M | +0.2% |
| EPS | 0.17 | 0.19 | −10.5% | 0.17 | ±0% |
| P/E today 16.2 | 18.2 | 19.0 | −0.8 | 20.2 | −2.0 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- The inclusion of any financial forecast information in this call should not be regarded as a representation by any person...
- Illinois remains the foundation of Accel Entertainment's business and continue to deliver strong results in the first quarter.
- Adjusted EBITDA also grew 9% to $54 million, reflecting solid underlying performance across the business.
- Quarter revenue increased 9% year-over-year to $352 million, marking an all-time quarterly record for the company.
- This performance underscores the effectiveness of Accel Entertainment's ongoing strategy to improve route quality and concentrate…
Faded since Q4 2025
- Fading Accel Entertainment's teams there continue to refine gaming machine placement strategy and leverage its in-house technology to support…
- Fading While still early in the penetration cycle, TITO is expected to enhance player convenience, provide benefits to Accel in terms...
- Fading Excluding this non-cash mark-to-market item, underlying earnings growth remained strong and consistent with Accel Entertainment's adjusted…
- Fading That's a little bit different than other companies, but that's how Accel Entertainment thinks about it.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K