Wayfair (W) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At 0.6% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $30.12 a share — the stock trades 280% above it. Today's price assumes 15.4% growth a year.

1. Guidance

   Equity-based compensation and related taxes are expected to total roughly $65 million to $75 million.

   Source quote

   “We expect equity-based compensation and related taxes of roughly $65 million to $75 million.”

2. Guidance

   The company expects free cash flow generation to expand meaningfully as it works toward double-digit adjusted EBITDA margins.

   Source quote

   “As we continue to build our way to double-digit adjusted EBITDA margins, we expect that our free cash flow generation will continue to expand meaningfully.”

3. Fading

   The company reported gains in the Retail Media business, highlighting a key area of focus for customer experience investment.

   Source quote

   “We're seeing really nice gains in the Retail Media business. I think if you've been at High Point, you would hear that from folks. But as we constantly evaluate where are the right places to invest in the customer and the customer experience, where do we see things...”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“We are operating from a position of strength, expanding our competitive moats and driving durable, highly profitable growth, which can compound for the long term.”

“What is exciting for us is that we are seeing accelerating growth in the Wayfair business and complementing that with outsized growth in the specialty and luxury segments, all building...”

“But the high-level point I want to make before I turn it over to Kate, is that we're investing in things that we think are going to be very strong...”