VST US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call

Vistra Corp. (VST) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

Share price: $133.45 · 2026-11-11

Vistra Corp. is an integrated electricity and power generation company that provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company operates in 18 states and the District of Columbia in the United States, utilizing a diverse fleet of generation facilities including natural gas, nuclear, coal, and solar power. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-27)

Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 7 Aug 2026 and 7 May 2026

Net income down 70.4% on the previous quarter. Management sounded upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.

1 · Numbers

−70.4%

Net income vs Q1 2026

Outlook given

Net income 305.0M vs 1.03B

Revenue −28.8%

Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is −6.7% — part of the move on last quarter is seasonal.

Why Against the same quarter last year (−6.7%), net income decreased by 6.7% because the year-over-year performance was influenced by several offsetting factors, including higher prices in PJM, the support from the hedging program, and the downside protection from the nuclear PTC.

2 · How management spoke

Upbeat

More upbeat than 69% of company calls

Answers to analysts: cautious, but clearly less so than the script.

Similar to last call.

3 · What stood out

Vistra may invest an additional $500 million if specific milestones are met and deals are determined to be valuable to the company to align interests.

Valuation

Is Vistra Corp. undervalued?

Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.

At 8.9% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $28.74 a share — the stock trades 364% above it. Today's price assumes 19.8% growth a year.

Current price

$133.45

close of 2026-11-11

Market implies growth of i

+19.8% for 10 yrs

Fair value / share

$28.74

Buy below

$21.55

Price vs fair value

Overvalued >200%

Price vs buy-below price

Overvalued >200%

FCF growth / yr i Discount rate i Terminal growth i Margin of safety i

Official channels

The company's own website and social media accounts.

Read between the lines

Figure

Adjusted EBITDA grew over 30% year-over-year to nearly $1.8 billion in the second quarter compared to approximately $1.35 billion in the second quarter of 2025.

Source quote
“We achieved second quarter Adjusted EBITDA of nearly $1.8 billion, compared to second quarter 2025 of approximately $1.35 billion, representing an over 30% increase year-over-year.”
Key theme

Vugarten continues to be in active negotiations with large load customers as data center development activity remains strong for both short and long-term power needs.

Source quote
“Data center development activity remains strong, we continue to be in active negotiations with large load customers as they seek to meet their power needs both in the short and long-term planning horizons.”
Guidance

Vistule Energy maintained its forecast for ERCOT despite growing queues, indicating that the company's long-term business fundamentals remain unchanged.
Guidance

The company expects to provide guidance updates for 2026 and 2027 on the third quarter earnings call, potentially delaying the 2027 update until after the Cogentrix deal closes.
Guidance

The company expects PUC and ERCOT to complete audits within a few months' timeframe, which may resolve pending issues.

4 more

Key theme

The company stated it does not see current issues impacting project timelines for the expected energization dates.

Source quote
“We don't see it impacting our projects in the timeframe that we were expecting to energize.”
Key theme

Returns on batteries were about a fifth of what investors expected because of how competitive markets work.

Source quote
“What we've seen since then is returns on batteries have been about a fifth of what investors probably expected that they would be, and that's the way competitive markets work.”
Guidance

Vistra aims to achieve the same mid-teens return targets promised to investors.
Key theme

The company stated that future clarity on project rates will be provided to all parties involved.

Source quote
“That will give all of us clarity about the rates that apply to these projects as well.”

Tone

How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesi. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.

Prepared remarks Upbeat (was upbeat)

Answers to analysts Cautious (was restrained)

Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 92% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.

Sentences that drove the tone

“The activity level we see today reinforces our view that the long-term expected improvement in power market fundamentals is underway, and we remain excited about the growth opportunities ahead.”

“Importantly, despite the strong level of growth, the performance of power grids during these recent summer peaks demonstrates that the power grids in our key markets are able to meet...”

“This includes industrial reshoring, increasing electrification, population growth, particularly in Texas, and broader economic expansion.”

Full figures

USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)

Metric	Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30	Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31	Change	Q2 2025	YoY
Revenue	4.02B	5.64B	−28.8%	4.25B	−5.5%
Operating income	553.0M	1.50B	−63.1%	515.0M	+7.4%
Net income	305.0M	1.03B	−70.4%	327.0M	−6.7%
EPS	0.76	2.87	−73.5%	0.81	−6.2%
P/E today 21.0	26.8	25.1	+1.7	31.1	−4.3

Topics

Most discussed now

With its large, diversified, and flexible fleet, its development capabilities, innovative retail franchise, and experienced commercial…
The activity level Vistra sees today reinforces its view that the long-term expected improvement in power market fundamentals is…
Turning to slide nine, Vistra is reaffirming its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $6.8 billion-$7.6 billion and its adjusted...
The year-over-year improvement was primarily driven by favorable hedging activity, resulting in the company's average realized prices being…
Vistra doesn't see that being affected at this point, it supports the conversation that the governor is wanting to have...

Faded since Q1 2026

Dropped Retail, which delivered $68 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, continues to benefit from strong counts and margins, partially...
Fading Vistra does want to meet customer needs, and it can do that and get the right returns for shareholders.
Fading I actually feel really good about how the integrated model performed.
Fading I expect to see that integrated model continuing to be a strength for Vistra.

Latest announcements

Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.

2026-11-06 Results of operations · SEC 8-K
2026-11-05 Acquisition or disposal; New financial obligation; Unregistered share sale; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
2026-10-05 Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
Vistra Operations Company LLC amended its credit agreement to extend the Revolving Credit Maturity Date from September 30, 2026, to September 29, 2027.
2026-09-24 Material agreement; Other events · SEC 8-K
Vistra Operations Company LLC completed an underwritten public offering of $850,000,000 of 7.000% Series A Junior Subordinated Notes and $650,000,000 of 7.250% Series B Junior Subordinated Notes due 2057.
2026-08-07 Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Vistra Corp. issued a news release on August 7, 2026, reporting its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
2026-07-16 Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
The company entered into amendments increasing the aggregate commitment of the Receivables Purchase Agreement from $1.1 billion to $1.25 billion and extending the terms of both the RPA and MFA until July 9, 2027.
2026-07-14 Other events · SEC 8-K
Vistra Corp. cleared approximately 10,924 megawatts in the PJM Capacity Auction for the 2028/2029 planning year at a weighted average clearing price of $325.00 per megawatt-day.
2026-06-30 Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
Vistra Operations Company LLC entered into amendments to its credit agreements, increasing the aggregate revolving credit commitments from $3.44 billion to $5.50 billion.

Catalyst calendar

management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.

2026

achieve another record result

Source quote
“We remain on track to achieve another record result in 2026 as the business continues to perform very well.”
2026

reaffirming the guidance ranges for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth

Source quote
“Moving to the outlook, we are reaffirming the guidance ranges for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth and maintaining the range of potential 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities.”
through 2030

annual load growth of at least 4%-6% in ERCOT and 2%-3% in PJM

Source quote
“We believe annual load growth of at least 4%-6% in ERCOT and 2%-3% in PJM through 2030 remain reasonable estimates for these markets.”
2028 and beyond

data centers will be an important driver of load

Source quote
“While data centers will be an important driver of load, particularly in 2028 and beyond, we believe a significant component of this growth is from sources other than data centers.”
2026

share repurchases and common and preferred dividends

Source quote
“We have allocated approximately $3 billion to our equity holders in 2026 and 2027 through share repurchases and common and preferred dividends.”