Talen Energy (TLN) · Q1 2026 results and valuation

At 10.0% growth a year (the standard assumption), the model's fair value is $92.88 a share — the stock trades 308% above it. Today's price assumes 18.9% growth a year.

1. Key theme

   TLN reported $350 million of adjusted free cash flow for the first three months of 2026, reflecting growth from acquisitions and business fundamentals compared to the same quarter last year.

   Source quote

   “For the first 3 months of 2026, we are reporting $473 million of adjusted EBITDA and $350 million of adjusted... Let's look at our first quarter financial and operating results. A comparison of these amounts to the same quarter last year provides clear evidence of the accretion Talen has achieved through acquisitions and fundamental growth in the business.”

2. Guidance

   Talen Energy is reaffirming its 2026 guidance and providing a preliminary view of its '27 and '28 outlooks.

3. Guidance

   The company projected $41 per share in 2028, a 30% increase from the January forecast, after factoring in the share repurchase program.

   Source quote

   “When factoring in our share repurchase program, we project approximately $41 per share in 2028, a 30% increase to what we showed back in January.”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Each of these opportunities could provide 10-plus percent in additional free cash flow per share growth beyond what's shown here, offering a compelling set of further growth opportunities.”

“We have also reduced market volatility risk and replaced some higher cost debt.”

“A $5 a megawatt hour impact across 30-plus terawatt hours in PPL zone presents a compelling upside opportunity, particularly as load growth occurs within the zone.”