ATO US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Atmos Energy (ATO) · Q4 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $175.65 · 2026-11-11
Results Q4 2026 vs Q3 2026 · previous quarter · published 4 Nov 2026 and 6 Aug 2026
Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
—
Figures not yet filed
Outlook given
2 · How management spoke
Typical
Less upbeat than 56% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
New
The strength of Atmos Energy's balance sheet will continue to support a long-term investment.
Valuation
Is Atmos Energy undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-09-30), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 3.8% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $47.93 a share — the stock trades 266% above it. Today's price assumes 14.5% growth a year.
Current price
$175.65
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+14.5% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$47.93
Buy below
$35.94
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
With anticipated 6% to 8% annual earnings per share growth from the midpoint of this guidance range, Atmos Energy anticipates earnings per share in Fiscal 2031 to be in the range...
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Guidance
For fiscal 27, Atmos Energy anticipates O &M, excluding bad debt expense, to range from $870 million to $890 million.
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Figure
Atmos Energy's robust five-year planning process has identified the need to invest nearly $29 billion, with approximately 88% of that planned investment...
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Fading
The 12 new industrial customers are anticipated to use approximately 950,000 Mcf per year once they are fully operational.
Source quote
“The 12 new industrial customers are anticipated to use approximately 950,000 Mcf per year once they are fully operational. Additionally, we added 5 new industrial customers during the third quarter and 12 new industrial customers fiscal year-to-date. That is volumetrically equivalent to adding 18,000 residential...”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q4 2026. Ring: Q3 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“We believe that successful execution of our strategy will support earnings per share growth at 6% to 8% from the midpoint of our fiscal 2027 EPS guidance, and we intend...”
“Our fiscal year results reflect the focus and dedication of the entire Atmos Energy team and their continued successful execution of our proven strategy of investing in our natural gas...”
“This discipline has supported 24 consecutive years of earnings per share growth and 42 consecutive years of dividend growth.”
Full figures
Q4 2026 figures are not available yet: the company files its quarterly report (10-Q) a few weeks after the call. This page compares what management said; the figures are added when the report is filed.
Topics
Most discussed now
- It doesn't change the construct Atmos Energy has with its communities to deliver safe and reliable natural gas service to them...
- Just like Atmos Energy does each quarter i'll give you an update on growth across the system which will include industrial...
- New Atmos Energy's five-year plan reflects its continued commitment to meeting the safety, reliability, and economic development expectations…
- New Performance that reflects discipline execution of Atmos Energy's operating, regulatory, and financial plans.
- New You're now looking at 10 to 15 percent, which is outside of that regulatory construct, over half of that is...
Faded since Q3 2026
- Fading Atmos Energy will just have to see what the rest of the summer cooling load looks like.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Material agreement · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Material agreement · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K