UPS US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
United Parcel Service (UPS) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $112.45 · 2026-11-11
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 27 Oct 2026 and 28 Jul 2026
Net income up 92.5% on the previous quarter. Management sounded upbeat, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+92.5%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 1.16B vs 604.0M
Revenue +0.1%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is −11.3%, so the move on last quarter looks seasonal or timing-related rather than a trend.
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 86% of company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Guidance
Customers account for approximately 80% of its peak surge, and based on their forecasts, United Parcel Service expects average daily volume to…
Valuation
Is United Parcel Service undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At −4.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $25.67 a share — the stock trades 338% above it. Today's price assumes 10.2% growth a year.
Current price
$112.45
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+10.2% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$25.67
Buy below
$19.25
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Management expects
Growth +25% · from the Q3 2026 report: “customers account for approximately 80% of our peak surge, and based on their forecasts, we expect average daily volume to increase approximately 25% from the…”
A guidance figure for growth, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Key theme
Domestic segment delivered its second consecutive quarter of strong year-over-year operating profit growth, increasing over 14% versus the third quarter…
Source quote
“domestic segment delivered its second consecutive quarter of strong year-over-year operating profit growth, increasing over 14% versus the third quarter... The U.S. In the U.S., we are now past the inflection point on several key elements of our strategy, with clear evidence in our volume, operating profit, and operating margin performance.”
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Guidance
Domestic, United Parcel Service expects revenue to be up approximately 3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, driven by revenue per piece and premium volume growth.
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Figure
Revenue grew across all three segments, driving consolidated revenue to $22.9 billion, up 6.7% from last year.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Moving to our 2026 financial outlook, at the beginning of the year, we laid out a plan that contemplated a meaningfully stronger second half, including a fourth quarter that targeted...”
“We grew premium volume, improved revenue quality, and converted that growth into higher operating profit and expanded operating margin.”
“In the quarter, revenue growth was strong in all three segments, and we delivered operating profit and margin expansion in our small package businesses.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.85B | 22.83B | +0.1% | 21.41B | +6.7% |
| Operating income | 1.74B | 930.0M | +87.5% | 1.80B | −3.3% |
| Net income | 1.16B | 604.0M | +92.5% | 1.31B | −11.3% |
| EPS | 1.37 | 0.71 | +93.0% | 1.55 | −11.6% |
| P/E today 20.9 | 18.0 | 20.0 | −2.0 | 12.9 | +5.1 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- In the third quarter, United Parcel Service wrapped up the final phase of the driver choice program, with approximately 1,500…
- United Parcel Service is driving more premium growth, improving revenue quality and mix, and creating greater operating leverage through a…
- New I'm not going to go into all those lessons learned with you today, but those lessons learned position us for...
- United Parcel Service's performance over the last two quarters demonstrates that its premium growth strategy is working, positioning us to…
- United Parcel Service still has work to do, but it has moved through an important inflection point.
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Bascome, if you look across the segments, Domestic and SES are following oral seasonality.
- Fading 18 months ago, United Parcel Service announced its Amazon glide down and network reconfiguration plan.
- Fading Incremental volume today carries materially better economics than before because of the structural changes United Parcel Service has made.
- Fading As you think about as United Parcel Service goes forward, look, it continues to see really strong pricing in its U.S.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K