ULTA US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) · Q4 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $659.08 · 2026-11-11
Results Q4 2026 vs Q3 2026 · previous quarter · published 12 Mar 2026 and 4 Dec 2025
Management sounded cautious, though noticeably more positive answering analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
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No financial figures for this pair
Outlook given
2 · How management spoke
Cautious
Among the least upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: very upbeat, and more positive than the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Key theme
Inventory productivity should keep generating strong operating cash, and operating profit growth is expected to pick up in the second half.
Valuation
Is Ulta Beauty undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2026-01-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 6.7% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $441.31 a share — the stock trades 49% above it. Today's price assumes 11.9% growth a year.
Current price
$659.08
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+11.9% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$441.31
Buy below
$330.98
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 49%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 99%
Management expects
Sales +6.5% · from the Q4 2026 report: “Full-year net sales expected to rise 6% to 7%, with comparable sales up 2.5% to 3.5%.”
A guidance figure for sales, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Guidance
Full-year net sales expected to rise 6% to 7%, with comparable sales up 2.5% to 3.5%.
Source quote
“For the year, we anticipate net sales will increase between 6% to 7% with comp sales growth between 2.5% and 3.5%.”
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Guidance
Gross margin expected to stay roughly flat, with inventory productivity gains offset by higher store expenses.
Source quote
“We expect gross margin will be approximately flat as benefits from higher merchandise margin driven primarily by greater inventory productivity will likely be offset by deleverage of store...”
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Figure
ULTA grew net sales by nearly 10% to $12.4 billion and delivered operating income of $1.5 billion or 12.4% for the year.
Source quote
“For the year, we grew net sales by nearly 10%, to $12.4 billion, delivered operating income of $1.5 billion or 12.4%...”
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Fading
Ulta gained market share in the prestige beauty category as the industry grew in mid-single digits.
Source quote
“But in regards to market share, you know, prestige beauty, the industry grew in mid-single digits, and we gained share... I'll try to make sure I cover all of the points. But makeup also increased.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q4 2026. Ring: Q3 2026.
Management was more positive answering analysts than in its script — usually a sign it was comfortable with the details it was asked about.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Building on this foundation, we have developed a plan for fiscal 2026 that delivers against our long-term financial targets, including market share expansion, profitable growth, and strong cash generation which...”
“If I see investment opportunities throughout the year, if we have upside and can increase our operating profit in the current year while continuing to also support future growth momentum,...”
“The hair care category delivered its best comp performance this year with comp growth for the quarter in the high single-digit range, primarily driven by strong performance from new brands...”
Topics
Most discussed now
- Ulta Beauty has strengthened its foundation, invested in key capabilities, and maintained a solid financial foundation with strong…
- Ulta Beauty feels really good that it actually have a very disciplined approach on SG&A.
- Ulta Beauty is staying really focused on controlling what it can control.
- Ulta Beauty is prioritizing growth investments in key areas and making intentional choices of where not to invest, and certainly…
- Ulta Beauty has been in this heavy, heavy investment cycle for many years, and it is time for it to start...
Faded since Q3 2026
- Fading Store payroll and benefit expenses increased primarily due to additional selling hours to support the guest experience and higher health...
- Fading I'm confident in Ulta Beauty's plans and staying really focused on execution.
- Fading The Ulta Beauty team delivered strong performance again this quarter, reflecting better than expected growth from comparable sales…
- Fading Other revenue increased approximately $8 million versus the third quarter last year.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Articles or bylaws amended; Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K