UAL US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) · Q3 2026 results and valuation

Share price: $118.37 · 2026-11-11

United Airlines Holdings is a holding company that operates an airline transporting people and cargo across North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and other regions. The company operates a hub-and-spoke network and serves passengers and freight customers through its own fleet and regional carriers. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-12)

Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 20 Oct 2026 and 16 Jul 2026

Net income up 27.8% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.

1 · Numbers

+27.8%

Net income vs Q2 2026

Outlook given

Net income 1.03B vs 805.0M

Revenue +1.1%

Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is +8.4% — part of the move on last quarter is seasonal.

Why Against the same quarter last year (+8.4%), net income rose by 8.4% because revenue increased by 17.4% driven by higher yield gains in leisure and premium segments, despite a rapid spike in jet fuel prices during the third quarter.

2 · How management spoke

Typical

Less upbeat than 52% of company calls

Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.

Similar to last call.

3 · What stood out

United Airlines Holdings expects fourth quarter earnings per share to be between $0.50 and $1.50, assuming an all-in fuel price of approximately $4.80 per gallon.

Valuation

Is United Airlines Holdings undervalued?

Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.

At 9.5% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $165.83 a share — the stock trades 29% below it. Today's price assumes 5.4% growth a year.

Current price

$118.37

close of 2026-11-11

Market implies growth of i

+5.4% for 10 yrs

Fair value / share

$165.83

Buy below

$124.37

Price vs fair value

Undervalued 29%

Price vs buy-below price

Undervalued 5%

FCF growth / yr i Discount rate i Terminal growth i Margin of safety i

Official channels

The company's own website and social media accounts.

Read between the lines

Guidance

The company expects fourth quarter earnings per share to be between $0.50 and $1.50, assuming an all-in fuel price of approximately $4.80 per gallon.
Key theme

UAL expects to reach 61% of departures by the end of 2026 and 87% by June 1, with full fleet availability expected by the end of 2027.

Source quote
“We currently expect to reach 61% of departures by the end of 26, 87% by June 1, and available fleet-wide by the end of 2027.”
Figure

Starlink is expected to be a key driver of revenue and share growth in 2027 because it is critical for business customers.

Source quote
“While Starlink is important to all of our customers, it is critical for our business customers, which we believe will be a key driver of revenue and share growth in 2027.”
Key theme

Management expects a meaningful RASM tailwind from Starlink in 2027, but noted it probably isn't enough on its own.

Source quote
“While I do expect a meaningful RASM tailwind from Starlink in 2027, to be honest, it probably isn't enough on its own.”
Key theme

The company will cut capacity on flights losing money during fuel price spikes to manage profit margins rather than just managing the CASMX.

Source quote
“The last thing I will say is in environments like this where fuel prices spike, we're going to have no hesitation to cut capacity of flights that are losing money because we're not managing the CASMX. We're managing the margin.”

2 more

Guidance

The company aims to target 2% to 3% Kazamax in 2027.
Key theme

The company is focusing on controllable investments in products, service, and technology made over the past several years.

Source quote
“Instead, we're focused on things we can control, and those are the big investments we've made over the past several years in products, service, and technology.”

Tone

How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesi. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.

Prepared remarks Typical (was restrained)

Answers to analysts Restrained (was typical)

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Cargo revenues increased by 23% year-over-year, with most of the increase occurring in yields as our global long-haul capacity growth was minimal in the quarter.”

“In the third quarter, we saw our highest quarterly NPS score since 2022 amidst record passenger growth.”

“Together, these investments reflect our continued execution of our strategy to build a stronger airline position for long-term profitable growth.”

Full figures

USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)

Metric	Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30	Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30	Change	Q3 2025	YoY
Revenue	17.88B	17.67B	+1.1%	15.22B	+17.4%
Operating income	1.45B	1.10B	+31.9%	1.40B	+3.7%
Net income	1.03B	805.0M	+27.8%	949.0M	+8.4%
EPS	3.14	2.46	+27.6%	2.90	+8.3%
P/E today 10.3	10.2	12.7	−2.5	9.7	+0.5

Topics

Most discussed now

New Its people remain at the center of everything United Airlines does, and in August, it completed the first phase of its...
Historical operational metrics will include pandemic years of 2020 to 2022.
In the third quarter, United Airlines saw its highest quarterly NPS score since 2022 amidst record passenger growth.
Ultimately, the strength of United Airlines' operation is reflected in its customer satisfaction results.
Fuel costs may make its progress hard to see, but United Airlines believes these recent results are another milestone towards its...

Faded since Q2 2026

Dropped United Airlines is focused on free cash flow, uniquely focused on free cash flow.
Fading The most important structural change in the industry has been the significant inflation and harmonization in nonfuel costs like airport...
Dropped However, that does not mean that United Airlines is gonna step away from basic economy.
Fading United has proven that its brand loyal strategy is working, and United Airlines is using today's environment to accelerate its investment...

Latest announcements

Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.

2026-10-20 Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
United Airlines reported Q3 total operating revenue of $17.9 billion, up 17.4% year-over-year, with diluted earnings per share of $3.14 and pre-tax earnings of $1.3 billion.
2026-07-15 Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
United Airlines reported total operating revenue up 16% year-over-year and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.99 for the second quarter of 2026.
2026-05-22 Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
2026-04-27 Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
United Airlines issued a statement regarding a proposed merger with American Airlines, which was declined by American Airlines, noting that 2025 ticket prices were 29% lower than pre-pandemic levels.
2026-04-21 Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
United Airlines reported first-quarter operating revenue of $14.6 billion, up 10.6% year-over-year, with diluted earnings per share of $2.14, up 85% year-over-year.
2026-02-06 Material agreement; New financial obligation; Other events · SEC 8-K
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. issued $1,000,000,000 of 4.875% Senior Notes due 2029 on February 6, 2026.
2026-02-02 Material agreement; New financial obligation; Other events · SEC 8-K
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. issued $1,000,000,000 of its 5.375% Senior Notes due 2031 on February 2, 2026.
2026-01-20 Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
United Airlines reported FY25 diluted earnings per share of $10.20, up 8% year-over-year, with total operating revenue reaching $59.1 billion, a 3.5% increase from the previous year.

Catalyst calendar

management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.

next year

first delivery of the MAX-10

Source quote
“It's a fantastic aircraft, and we look forward to taking our first delivery next year.”
by the end of 26

reach 61% of departures on Starlink-equipped aircraft

Source quote
“We currently expect to reach 61% of departures by the end of 26, 87% by June 1, and available fleet-wide by the end of 2027.”
next month

open a new concourse with 14 additional gates

Source quote
“we're also advancing a major airport transformation and expect to open a new concourse with 14 additional gates next month.”
2027

Starlink being a key driver of revenue and share growth

Source quote
“While Starlink is important to all of our customers, it is critical for our business customers, which we believe will be a key driver of revenue and share growth in 2027.”
2026

generate 1 million new accounts

Source quote
“We remain on pace to generate 1 million new accounts in 2026, a material increase from 2025, thanks to changes to Mileage Plus, along with strong marketing from both United and Chase.”