AAL Nasdaq Russell 1000 Earnings call
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $14.10 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 23 Jul 2026 and 23 Apr 2026
Net income turned to a profit from a loss last quarter. Management sounded upbeat, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
Turned profit
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 71.0M vs -382.0M
Revenue +20.3%
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 76% of company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Figure
Third-quarter fuel is expected to cost roughly $3.75 per gallon based on the July 21 forward curve.
Valuation
Is American Airlines Group Inc. undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Average free cash flow of the last three fiscal years (the last year was negative) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 3.7% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $4.83 a share — the stock trades 192% above it. Today's price assumes 10.7% growth a year.
Current price
$14.10
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+10.7% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$4.83
Buy below
$3.62
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 192%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
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Key theme
AAL's Q2 strategy offset nearly 50% of the $2.2 billion year-over-year fuel cost increase, softening the financial blow.
Source quote
“And then across the Atlantic more broadly through the second quarter and into the third, we're seeing good results in the entity. We're allocating our most premium aircraft to that market, most premium market in the world, and it's a smaller airplane, but we're really seeing benefits on that front. Our new routes are hitting our projections and our targets.”
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Guidance
AAL anticipates full-year adjusted earnings to be break-even at the midpoint of their guidance range despite an expected $6 billion year-over-year fuel headwind.
Source quote
“Even against an expected nearly $6 billion year-over-year fuel headwind, we anticipate full year adjusted earnings to be break-even at the midpoint of our guidance range.”
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Guidance
AAL expects average fuel prices of approximately $3.75 per gallon in the third quarter, resulting in a $1.7 million change based on the forward curve.
Source quote
“Based on the forward curve, as of July 21, we expect an average fuel price of approximately $3.75 per gallon in the third quarter, resulting in a $1.7...”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“AAdvantage program enrollments increased more than 30% year-over-year during the second quarter, surpassing the record growth we achieved in the first quarter.”
“American also achieved a 7% year-over-year improvement in the ACSI survey, one of the strongest gains in the industry.”
“And as fuel prices normalize, American is poised to deliver expanded margins, sustained free cash flow, a stronger balance sheet and increased value to our shareholders.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16.73B | 13.91B | +20.3% | 14.39B | +16.3% |
| Operating income | 446.0M | -41.0M | Turned profit | 1.14B | −60.7% |
| Net income | 71.0M | -382.0M | Turned profit | 599.0M | −88.1% |
| EPS | 0.11 | -0.58 | Turned profit | 0.91 | −87.9% |
| P/E | 12-mo loss | 34.6 | — | 13.4 | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Being a premium global airline means delivering an outstanding customer experience in the air and on the ground.
- American Airlines achieved record quarterly revenue on year-over-year growth of more than 16%.
- Pacific unit revenue increased 15% year-over-year with Japan performance noteworthy.
- Revenue strength was broad-based, reflecting robust demand for American Airlines' product and an improving pricing environment.
- Since the beginning of July, expected third quarter fuel expense has increased by more than $700 million for the quarter...
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading Quarter revenue grew 10.8%, and American Airlines expects this demand strength to continue, as it anticipates the second quarter will...
- Fading Demand for American's product continues to grow, and during the quarter, American Airlines recorded the 9 highest revenue intake weeks in...
- Fading American Airlines is seeing the benefits of its multiyear commercial initiatives come through in its revenue performance.
- Fading Even with those headwinds, American Airlines' pretax margin improved approximately 2 points year-over-year.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
- Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K