STLD US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Steel Dynamics (STLD) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $238.99 · 2026-11-11
Steel Dynamics is an industrial metals company that produces steel and aluminum products using recycled scrap as the primary input. The company operates in the United States and Mexico, serving the automotive, industrial, and beverage can industries. Its business includes metal recycling, steel fabrication, and the manufacturing of steel joist and deck products. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-27)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 20 Oct 2026 and 21 Jul 2026
Management sounded upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
—
No financial figures for this pair
Outlook given
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 79% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, but clearly less so than the script.
Last call it was different: script and answers matched.
3 · What stood out
Steel Dynamics reported record quarterly steel shipments of 3.8 million tons, adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion, and cash flow from operations of $846 million.
Valuation
Is Steel Dynamics undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At −6.5% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $0.06 a share — the stock trades 375311% above it. Today's price assumes 25.9% growth a year.
Current price
$238.99
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+25.9% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$0.06
Buy below
$0.05
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
STLD missed its earlier guidance range due to foreign currency moves and aluminum hedging unrealized market-to-market adjustments of just under 30 million in late September.
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Figure
STLD reported record quarterly steel shipments of 3.8 million tons, adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion, and cash flow from operations of $846 million.
Source quote
“Some quarter highlights included record quarterly steel shipments of 3.8 million tons, adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion, and extremely strong cash flow from operations of $846 million.”
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Figure
For the third quarter of 2026, net income was $756 million or $5.26 per diluted share with adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion.
Source quote
“For the third quarter of 2026, our net income was $756 million or $5.26 per diluted share with adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion.”
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Guidance
The United States faces a structural supply deficit of more than 1.4 million tons of aluminum sheet, which is forecast to widen as demand grows across key end markets.
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Key theme
The company expects production to grow to 250,000 tons a month or more, indicating an anticipated increase in output volume.
Source quote
“And the expectation is for that to continue to grow to 250,000 tons a month or perhaps more.”
4 more
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Figure
The company repurchased $591 million of common stock during 2026 and continued a positive dividend profile.
Source quote
“During 2026, we have repurchased $591 million of our common stock and continued a positive dividend profile.”
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Figure
Aluminum operations are expected to see higher volume and profitability in the fourth quarter and through 2027 as startup costs subside, utilization yields improve, and scrap content increases.
Source quote
“We believe volume and profitability from our aluminum operations will increase sharply in the fourth quarter and continue improving through 2027 as startup costs subside, utilization yields improve, and scrap content increases.”
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Figure
Recent key growth projects are contributing to the realization of over $1.4 billion in through-cycle earnings potential.
Source quote
“The through-cycle earnings potential of over $1.4 billion from our recent key growth projects is becoming a reality.”
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Key theme
Rising global costs from decarbonization initiatives will steepen the cost curve, enhancing Steel Dynamics' competitive position and creating opportunities for market share gains and expanded metal spreads.
Source quote
“As decarbonization initiatives continue, the resulting increase in global cost structures will materially steepen the cost curve, enhancing Steel Dynamics' competitive position and driving opportunities for market share gains and expanded metal spreads.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 83% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“We believe volume and profitability from our aluminum operations will increase sharply in the fourth quarter and continue improving through 2027 as startup costs subside, utilization yields improve, and scrap...”
“As decarbonization initiatives continue, the resulting increase in global cost structures will materially steepen the cost curve, enhancing Steel Dynamics' competitive position and driving opportunities for market share gains and...”
“That success has also been supported by an incredible team of 14,000 people as I said and the best senior leadership on the planet all of whom have been very...”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026not yet filed | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 6.09B | 4.83B | ||
| Gross profit | — | 959.0M | 757.9M | ||
| Operating income | — | 700.5M | 507.8M | ||
| Net income | — | 534.1M | 403.7M | ||
| EPS | — | 3.69 | 2.74 | ||
| P/E today 16.5 | — | 20.8 | — | 18.5 | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Such statements involve risk and uncertainties related to integrating or starting up new assets, the aluminum industry, the use of...
- Decisions that have driven tremendous growth and about 3,000% in shareholder value appreciation, a value of very few can very...
- At the same time, Steel Dynamics remains committed to preserving its investment-grade credit profile, ensuring the financial strength and…
- Steel Dynamics consistently achieve higher utilization due to its value-added product diversification, differentiated customer supply chain…
- Steel Dynamics has invested strategically to gain significant scale, high margin product and market diversification, efficient and unique…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Fading Over the past several years, Steel Dynamics has invested more than $5 billion in three transformative organic growth initiatives: its…
- Dropped Regarding trade policy, Steel Dynamics believes in preserving a strong, durable trade framework that provides operational viability for U.S.
- Dropped The current administration has placed a 50% Section 232 tariff for imported steel on national security matters, fully supporting the...
- Dropped Steel Dynamics also believes it has an advantaged commercial position.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Steel Dynamics reported net sales of $6.5 billion and net income of $756 million for the third quarter of 2026, compared to $404 million in the third quarter of the prior year.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Steel Dynamics announced the promotion of six senior leaders to various executive roles effective October 1, 2026, and November 1, 2026, to support long-term growth.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Steel Dynamics provided third quarter 2026 earnings guidance of $5.34 to $5.38 per diluted share, compared to $2.74 per diluted share in the third quarter of the prior year.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Steel Dynamics announced a third quarter 2026 cash dividend of $0.53 per common share, payable to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2026.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Theresa E. Wagler will become President and CEO effective January 1, 2027, while Mark D. Millett will transition to Executive Chairman.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Steel Dynamics reported net sales of $6.1 billion and net income of $534 million for the second quarter of 2026, compared to $299 million in the second quarter of the prior year.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Steel Dynamics provided second quarter 2026 earnings guidance of $3.51 to $3.55 per diluted share, compared to $2.01 per diluted share in the second quarter of the prior year.
- Shareholder vote results; Other events · SEC 8-K
Steel Dynamics declared a second quarter cash dividend of $0.53 per common share, payable to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2026.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-28.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$928.6M
2026-09-30
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -2.7% YoY, -0.7% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 150.3M |
| Q2 2025 | 148.4M |
| Q3 2025 | 146.9M |
| Q1 2026 | 144.8M |
| Q2 2026 | 144.0M |
| Q3 2026 | 143.0M |
Shares outstanding: 142.2M (2026-10-21)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 92 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
31.1K shares
$7.6M · 13 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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fourth quarter and throughout 2027
improvement of volumes, cost structure, and profitability from the aluminum rolling mill
Source quote
“We expect volumes, cost structure, and profitability from the aluminum rolling mill to improve in the fourth quarter and throughout 2027.”
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before the end of this year
shipping finished automotive products
Source quote
“We have plans to ship finished automotive products before the end of this year, and I think it all would agree that is a phenomenal achievement.”
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first quarter of 27
second cash line becoming operational
Source quote
“The second cash line is currently in commissioning and will be operational in the first quarter of 27.”
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throughout 27
product mix benefits
Source quote
“As we move through construction, commissioning, and ramping of the various production lines, we continue to be excited by our progress with expectations for significant cost optimization benefits to occur in the near term and product mix benefits throughout 27.”
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by the end of the year
achieving 90% utilization
Source quote
“Though it's put us a month behind, we still believe we can achieve 90% by the end of the year.”