MOS US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
The Mosaic Company (MOS) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $22.80 · 2026-11-11
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 3 Nov 2026 and 5 Aug 2026
Net loss narrowed on the previous quarter. Management sounded cautious, in its script and in answers to analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
Loss narrowed
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income -72.1M vs -272.8M
Revenue +9.8%
2 · How management spoke
Cautious
Among the least upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: cautious, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
New
South Fort Meade and Miskey Mile to reduce unnecessary buildup
Valuation
Is The Mosaic Company undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Average free cash flow of the last three fiscal years (the last year was negative) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
The projected cash flow doesn't cover the debt, so the price is far above the model's fair value.
Current price
$22.80
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+24.8% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$-12.60
Buy below
$-9.45
Price vs fair value
n/a
Price vs buy-below price
n/a
Read between the lines
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Guidance
Mosaic is also continuing to optimize its capital budget and now target 2027 capex of below 1 billion dollars, 200 million dollars...
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Guidance
For sulfur, Mosaic expects realized prices in cost of goods sold to be in the range of $800 to $850 per ton.
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Fading
Raw materials costs
Source quote
“In quarter 2, our raw materials costs averaged $522 per long ton Phosphate business, we've shown an ability to manage our input costs. For quarter 3, as Bruce discussed, we settled a sulfur contract at $705 per ton.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“We're continuing to pursue several portfolio actions to improve capital efficiency, strengthen financial flexibility, and invest in the opportunities that offer the greatest strategic value.”
“Based on our current plans, we are targeting below $1 billion of capital expenditures in 2027, roughly $200 million below where we expect to finish 2026.”
“Higher soybean prices supported stronger demand during the third quarter and farm economics in Madagrosso in the third quarter were at their highest level in the last three years.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.10B | 2.82B | +9.8% | 3.45B | −10.2% |
| Gross profit | 84.1M | 214.7M | −60.8% | 552.3M | −84.8% |
| Operating income | -96.6M | -35.5M | Loss widened | 339.8M | Turned loss |
| Net income | -72.1M | -272.8M | Loss narrowed | 411.4M | Turned loss |
| EPS | -0.23 | -0.86 | Loss narrowed | 1.29 | Turned loss |
| P/E | 12-mo loss | 12-mo loss | — | 9.0 | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Cash costs of conversion per ton saw a meaningful sequential decline, reflecting in part the idling of phosphate production in...
- New It's pretty moderate on the Richter scale standpoint.
- New Mosaic does have protocols when those things happen to check, as you can imagine, the precious infrastructure underground that it...
- Gulf Coast refiners continue to provide an important sulfur sourcing advantage.
- The strongest companies are built to withstand markets like this by taking decisive actions, preserving financial flexibility, and…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Mosaic is not making or making very little commodity fertilizers in Brazil, given the sulfur availability and affordability issue.
- Dropped You may remember past conference calls, Mosaic talked about an accumulation of rock inventories.
- Fading Mosaic is aggressively removing fixed costs where it can, especially in Brazil to better cope with the temporary curtailments and...
- Fading In the near term, however, ongoing curtailments are expected to result in limited fixed cost absorption and elevated idle expenses...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- 2.04 · SEC 8-K
- New financial obligation; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K