NUE US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Nucor (NUE) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $261.39 · 2026-11-11
Nucor produces steel and related products. The company supplies materials for construction projects such as buildings, bridges, and roads in the United States. Source: Wikipedia
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 26 Oct 2026 and 28 Jul 2026
Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
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Figures not yet filed
Outlook given
2 · How management spoke
Typical
More upbeat than 51% of company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Nucor increased its long-term annual EBITDA contribution forecast from towers and structures from $150 million to approximately $200 million.
Valuation
Is Nucor undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Average free cash flow of the last three fiscal years (the last year was negative) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At −7.8% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $45.78 a share — the stock trades 471% above it. Today's price assumes 14.6% growth a year.
Current price
$261.39
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+14.6% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$45.78
Buy below
$34.33
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
The company increased its long-term annual EBITDA contribution forecast from towers and structures from $150 million to approximately $200 million.
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Guidance
Results exceeded the midpoint of the guidance range by roughly 3.5% because of higher shipments and higher average selling prices in the steel mills segment.
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Figure
New investments and earned margins are expected to ramp into 2027 and increase the free cash flow.
Source quote
“It skyrockets the free cash flow on top of the margins that we're earning, on top of the contributions that the new investments are already having and will continue to ramp into 27.”
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Figure
Nucor delivered its strongest quarter in more than three years with approximately $2.3 billion of EBITDA and earnings of $5.80 per share.
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Key theme
Nucor expects steel mill shipments growth to finish closer to the higher end of its 5-10% range for 2026.
Source quote
“Nucor continues to expect steel mill shipments growth to finish closer to the higher end of our 5-10% range for 2026.”
4 more
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Figure
The company announced a combined $165 million investment to increase the capacity of its Indiana and Alabama facilities by about 50% due to customer demand.
Source quote
“Based on the strength of customer demand, we recently announced a combined $165 million of investments to increase the capacity of our Indiana and Alabama facilities by about 50%.”
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Figure
The company remains committed to returning at least 40 percent of net earnings to shareholders on an annual basis.
Source quote
“We remain committed to returning at least 40 percent of net earnings to shareholders on an annual basis.”
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Guidance
The company expects capital expenditures to decline further in 2027, extending the step down from peak spending in 2024 and 2025.
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Figure
Nucor's EBITDA margin expanded to over 20 percent, reaching its highest level in the past three years.
Source quote
“Nucor's EBITDA margin expanded to over 20 percent, and that's our highest level in the past three years.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“And as new growth projects come online, we'll have even more opportunities to expand our position in the automotive market.”
“And as we grow our automotive shipments, we're expanding what we can offer with the capabilities we have in place today.”
“As both projects ramp and complete customer qualifications, we will build on the strong relationships we already have in place with many of North America's leading automakers.”
Full figures
Q3 2026 figures are not available yet: the company files its quarterly report (10-Q) a few weeks after the call. This page compares what management said; the figures are added when the report is filed.
Topics
Most discussed now
- Yesterday, Nucor posted its third quarter earnings release and investor presentation to Nucor's IR website.
- Beyond power, Nucor is seeing strong demand across the oil and gas sector, including LNG terminals and pipeline construction, and growing...
- With a capital spending moderating as major projects near completion, that strength is increasingly showing up in Nucor's free cash...
- Nucor's priority will be to operate safely and reliably while steadily increasing production toward its 50% utilization target by the...
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped One, it's going to come in and around the mega trend area.
- Dropped This isn't where Nucor saw in '21 or '22, where you had a really rapid spike of HRC and kind...
- Dropped It is a demand picture that Nucor is seeing, the robust demand almost in every product group area that it has...
- Fading Year-to-date, Nucor has returned over $730 million to shareholders and deployed approximately $1.2 billion in CapEx, with most of that…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Nucor reported net earnings of $1.32 billion for the third quarter of 2026, compared to $607 million in the third quarter of 2025.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Nucor reported net earnings of $1.16 billion for the second quarter of 2026, compared to $603 million for the second quarter of 2025.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Nucor reported net earnings of $743 million for the first quarter of 2026, compared to $156 million in the first quarter of 2025.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Executive Vice President of Commercial Daniel R. Needham announced his voluntary retirement from Nucor Corporation, effective June 20, 2026.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Nucor reported net earnings of $378 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to $287 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Nucor Corporation announced the promotion of Steve Laxton to President and Chief Operating Officer effective January 1, 2026, while David Sumoski will retire on June 13, 2026.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-29.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$2.48B
2026-07-04
Short-term investments
$214.0M
total $2.69B
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -1.0% YoY, -0.3% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 236.5M |
| Q2 2025 | 232.7M |
| Q3 2025 | 230.6M |
| Q4 2025 | 229.9M |
| Q2 2026 | 228.9M |
| Q3 2026 | 228.2M |
Shares outstanding: 226.9M (2026-07-04)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 66 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
201.1K shares
$47.2M · 28 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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December
expect to run our first coils through the hot mill, cold mill, and construction grade galv lines
Source quote
“And by December, we expect to run our first coils through the hot mill, cold mill, and construction grade galv lines.”
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early 2027
ramp production
Source quote
“As we complete commissioning, the team is preparing to ramp production in early 2027.”
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by the end of 2027
reach 50% utilization target
Source quote
“Our priority will be to operate safely and reliably while steadily increasing production toward our 50% utilization target by the end of 2027.”
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through 2027 and 2028
support a successful ramp
Source quote
“By gradually shifting baseload tons from other Nucor sheet mills to West Virginia, we can provide the new mill a steady base of orders to support a successful ramp through 2027 and 2028.”
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2027
startup costs to remain elevated
Source quote
“As with any project of this scale and complexity, we expect startup costs to remain elevated in 2027 at levels similar to or higher to those in 2026.”