Raymond James Financial (RJF) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At 10.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $251.99 a share — the stock trades 34% below it. Today's price assumes 3.9% growth a year.

1. Key theme

   RJF reported steady performance in the Capital Markets segment as a way to improve the adjusted compensation ratio.

   Source quote

   “So in terms of as you mentioned, the long-term opportunities that we have to improve that adjusted comp ratio is with growing...”

2. Guidance

   Asset management fees are expected to rise about 11% in the fiscal fourth quarter, driven mainly by higher PCG.

   Source quote

   “Looking ahead, we expect fiscal fourth quarter 2026 asset management and related administrative fees to increase approximately 11% from the third quarter level, driven primarily by higher PCG...”

3. Fading

   Short-term rates are down year-over-year, pressuring margins in the Private Client Group.

   Source quote

   “And so that obviously is a headwind to margins in the Private Client Group business because there's a spread dynamic... I mean, year-over-year, short-term rates are down. which I think everyone sort of anticipates both on the way up with rates and on the way down with rates.”

Management was more positive answering analysts than in its script — usually a sign it was comfortable with the details it was asked about.

Sentences that drove the tone

“As we enter the fiscal fourth quarter, we do so with significant momentum, supported by historically strong business drivers, robust financial adviser recruiting and strong investment banking pipelines, along with...”

“It really like the AI concern really impacted the technology team, which is one of our biggest, if not our biggest business year in and year out with fintech and...”

“Pretax income grew 3% over the year ago quarter as the revenue growth was partially offset by the impact of lower interest rates and investments in leading growth, including record...”