NTRS US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Northern Trust (NTRS) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $178.71 · 2026-11-11
Northern Trust is a financial services company that provides services to corporations, institutional investors, and ultra-high-net-worth individuals. It operates as a banking institution in the United States. Source: Wikipedia
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 21 Oct 2026 and 22 Jul 2026
Management sounded upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
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Figures not yet filed
Outlook given
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 81% of company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, but clearly less so than the script.
Last call it was different: script and answers matched.
3 · What stood out
Northern Trust plans to convert six northern funds, representing approximately $33 billion in assets, into ETFs during the first quarter of 2027.
Valuation
Is Northern Trust undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 6.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $165.21 a share — the stock trades 8% above it. Today's price assumes 7.2% growth a year.
Current price
$178.71
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+7.2% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$165.21
Buy below
$123.91
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 8%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 44%
Management expects
Revenue +11% · from the Q3 2026 report: “The target financial model excludes revenue growth of 11% because the company believes the market backdrop will not support that level of growth over a four…”
A guidance figure for revenue, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Guidance
The target financial model excludes revenue growth of 11% because the company believes the market backdrop will not support that level of growth over a four, five, or six-year cycle.
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Figure
Excluding notable items, revenue grew 11% supported by 8% growth in trust fees, 14% growth in net interest income, and 38% growth in capital markets revenues.
Source quote
“Excluding notable items, revenue grew 11%, supported by 8% growth in trust fees, 14% growth in net interest income, and 38% growth in capital markets revenues, which include foreign exchange trading, securities commissions, and other trading activities.”
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Figure
Pre-tax income rose 21% and earnings per share increased 40% year-over-year.
Source quote
“Pre-tax income rose 21%, and earnings per share increased 40% year-over-year.”
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Figure
Excluding notable items, total revenue was flat sequentially and up 11% year-over-year, which provides a clearer view of core performance.
Source quote
“Excluding notable items in all periods, total revenue was flat sequentially and up 11% year-over-year.”
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Guidance
NTRS expects the effective tax rate to be closer to 25% in the fourth quarter and going forward.
3 more
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Figure
The net interest margin on an FTE basis rose two basis points to 1.83% due to the benefit of securities investment strategies.
Source quote
“Our net interest margin on an FTE basis was 1.83%, up two basis points sequentially, reflecting the benefit of our securities investment strategies.”
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Figure
NTRS returned more than $500 million in the third quarter and more than $1.5 billion year-to-date.
Source quote
“We return more than $500 million in the third quarter and more than $1.5 billion year-to-date.”
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Figure
Quarter pre-tax margin exceeded 30%, increasing by 6 percentage points year over year.
Source quote
“Third quarter pre-tax margin exceeded 30%, up 6 percentage points year over year.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 82% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Our capital position remains strong, giving us the flexibility to support our clients, invest in strategic growth opportunities, and continue returning capital to our shareholders.”
“We achieved our sixth consecutive quarter of positive ETF flows and launched 10 new ETFs, expanding our fixed income capabilities and broadening the range of tax-efficient solutions available to clients.”
“We've demonstrated the strength and resilience of Northern Trust across a range of macroeconomic environments, and we will continue to grow the franchise and pursue the opportunities ahead with discipline.”
Full figures
Q3 2026 figures are not available yet: the company files its quarterly report (10-Q) a few weeks after the call. This page compares what management said; the figures are added when the report is filed.
Topics
Most discussed now
- New This is one northern trust in practice, combining capabilities around client needs, strengthening relationships, and creating additional…
- On its website, you will find its quarterly earnings review presentation, which Northern Trust will use to guide today's conference...
- Northern Trust's capital position remains strong, giving us the flexibility to support its clients, invest in strategic growth…
- This integrated solution supports the family's complex investment structure and creates opportunities to deepen the relationship over time.
- Similarly, a recent win with a large UK wealth manager brought together NTAM's index management capabilities with asset servicing…
Faded since Q2 2026
- Fading Northern Trust delivered an eighth consecutive quarter of positive organic fee growth and generated significant positive operating…
- Fading Northern Trust is making solid progress adding revenue-generating professionals, particularly critical producer roles, where pending hires…
- Dropped In its asset management business, for example, Northern Trust is using AI to enhance its investment research and idea generation…
- Dropped More broadly, Northern Trust also launched Invested as One, a new employee ownership initiative that provides eligible employees with…
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Northern Trust Corporation reported third-quarter net income of $642.9 million and earnings per diluted common share of $3.40, compared to $457.6 million and $2.29 in the third quarter of 2025.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Northern Trust appointed Rima Qureshi to its board of directors and the Risk and Technology and Operations committees effective October 20, 2026.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Northern Trust Corporation announced that Chief Financial Officer Dave Fox plans to retire on or around March 31, 2027, and the company will begin a search for his successor.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Northern Trust Corporation announced the redemption of all 5,000 outstanding shares of its Series D Preferred Stock and 500,000 depositary shares at a price of $1,000.00 per depositary share on October 1, 2026.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Northern Trust Corporation reported net income of $792.2 million and earnings per diluted common share of $4.23 for the second quarter of 2026, compared to $421.3 million and $2.13 in the same period of 2025.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Northern Trust reported 2025 revenue of $8,086.4 million, an increase of 7% compared to 2024, with pre-tax income of $2,339.5 million rising 13% over the previous year.
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-26.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$5.74B
2026-06-30
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -4.5% YoY, -0.8% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 199.9M |
| Q1 2025 | 195.2M |
| Q2 2025 | 192.8M |
| Q3 2025 | 190.1M |
| Q1 2026 | 185.5M |
| Q2 2026 | 184.0M |
Shares outstanding: 183.0M (2026-06-30)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 118 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
28.3K shares
$4.7M · 6 transactions
Bought by insiders
480 shares
$83.2K · 2 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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over the next two-plus years
extension of mandate to additional funds for UBS's Swiss and Luxembourg management companies
Source quote
“Subject to regulatory approvals, UBS's Swiss and Luxembourg management companies will extend our mandate to additional funds over the next two-plus years, including”
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through year-end
continued recruiting campaign for wealth management
Source quote
“Our focused recruiting efforts have accelerated hiring and contributed to growth in our revenue-generating population quarter-over-quarter, and will continue that campaign through year-end.”
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during the first quarter of 2027
convert six northern funds, representing approximately $33 billion in assets, into ETFs
Source quote
“Looking ahead, we plan to convert six northern funds, representing approximately $33 billion in assets, into ETFs during the first quarter of 2027.”
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through the first quarter of next year
Dave Fox to remain CFO to ensure a seamless transition
Source quote
“He'll remain CFO through the first quarter of next year to ensure a seamless transition, and there will be ample opportunity to recognize his many contributions before then.”
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fourth quarter
expected effective tax rate to be closer to 25%
Source quote
“We expect the effective tax rate to be closer to 25% in the fourth quarter and going forward.”