Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) · Q4 2026 results and valuation

At 13.2% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $100.07 a share — the stock trades 5% below it. Today's price assumes 12.5% growth a year.

1. Guidance ↑

   Ollie's Bargain Outlet's comp sales increase was above its expectations in the quarter, even more so when factoring in the impact of severe winter weather.

2. Fading

   The earlier 5 PM start time generated enthusiastic customer response.

   Source quote

   “We had such an enthusiastic response from customers about the earlier start time of the event. In terms of Ollie's Army Night, you know, I kind of made the comment on the call about our learning from the summer event. If you remember, we started the event at 5 PM.”

3. Fading

   Better-than-expected results and a very good Q4 start led to raising full-year sales and earnings outlook.

   Source quote

   “Accelerating new unit growth and expanding the Ollie's Army loyalty program are two big priorities this year. With the better-than-expected results and a very good start to the fourth quarter, we are raising our full-year sales and earnings outlook. We are delivering on both of these initiatives.”

Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 85% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.

Sentences that drove the tone

“the lowest of our cohorts a little bit weak, the trade down is more than offsetting the weakness in the lower income cohorts.”

“We opened a record 86 stores last year, an increase of more than 15% and membership growth in Ollie's Army remained strong, up more than 12% for the year to...”

“Inventories increased 18% year-over-year, primarily driven by our new store growth and strong deal flow.”