Dollar General (DG) · Q4 2026 results and valuation

At 4.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $142.40 a share — the stock trades 3% below it. Today's price assumes 3.7% growth a year.

1. Key theme

   DG flagged basis point improvement as a key theme this quarter, signaling margin progress that could lift profitability.

   Source quote

   “Basis point improvement”

2. Guidance

   DG updated 2026 guidance to expect net sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2%, giving investors a clear full-year target.

   Source quote

   “Taking all this into account, for 2026, we expect net sales growth in the range of 3.7% to 4.2%.”

3. Guidance

   DG expects full-year gross margin to keep expanding but at a much lesser extent than 2025 as it compares against strong prior-year performance.

   Source quote

   “For the full year, we expect continued gross margin expansion though to a much lesser extent than 2025 as we lap the strong performance from prior year.”

4. Figure

   DG's net sales rose 5.9% to $10.9 billion in Q4 from $10.3 billion last year.

   Source quote

   “Net sales increased 5.9% to $10.9 billion in Q4 compared to net sales of $10.3 billion in last year's fourth...”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“Overall, our framework is centered on driving strong top and bottom line growth and improving profitability while continuing to invest in high-return growth initiatives and ultimately returning significant cash to...”

“Looking ahead, we have ample opportunity to further drive incremental sales growth through customer experience enhancements, increased customer awareness and expanded loyalty opportunities including a planned pilot of a subscription...”

“Our first priority is investing in the business, including our existing store base as well as other high-return growth opportunities such as new store expansion, remodels and other strategic initiatives.”