MDLZ US S&P 500NASDAQ-100Russell 1000 Earnings call
Mondelez International (MDLZ) · Q1 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $66.70 · 2026-11-11
Mondelez International manufactures and sells chocolate, biscuits, baked snacks, gum, candy, and powdered beverages. The company distributes its products to various retail outlets and digital platforms across more than 150 countries. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-04)
Results Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025 · previous quarter · published 28 Apr 2026 and 3 Feb 2026
Net income down 15.8% on the previous quarter. Management sounded cautious, though noticeably more positive answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
−15.8%
Net income vs Q4 2025
Net income 560.0M vs 665.0M
Revenue −4.0%
Against the same quarter last year (Q1 2025) it is +39.3%, so the move on last quarter looks seasonal or timing-related rather than a trend.
Why Net income rose because of slightly positive net revenue growth in North America, positive volume mix in emerging markets, and year-on-year benefits from supply chain procurement and manufacturing.
2 · How management spoke
Cautious
Among the least upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, and more positive than the script.
Last call it was different: script and answers matched.
3 · What stood out
Mondelez International is well covered for oil and packaging costs through 2027, but costs in certain regulated markets will materialize as a headwind for the remainder of the year.
Valuation
Is Mondelez International undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 7.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $32.94 a share — the stock trades 102% above it. Today's price assumes 14.2% growth a year.
Current price
$66.70
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+14.2% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$32.94
Buy below
$24.71
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 102%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued 170%
Read between the lines
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Key theme
Retailer negotiations are generally complete and in line with company planning for the quarter.
Source quote
“The retailer negotiations are generally complete, and they are in line with our planning.”
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Key theme
Net revenue in North America grew slightly in the first quarter due to momentum in growth channels.
Source quote
“We feel that we had a good first quarter with slightly positive net revenue growth in North America, driven by that momentum in the growth channels that I was saying.”
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Figure
Mondelez International believes 2,500, which is the level it sees at this moment is a much better representation of what supply and demand would say.
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Figure
While oil and packaging costs are covered through 2027, inability to protect against costs in certain regulated markets resulted in a decision to guide for clear EPS in line with previous statements.
Source quote
“We are well covered for oil and packaging costs for the remainder of the year. And quite frankly, also into 2027, but some regulated market do not allow us to do anything in terms of protecting ourselves, and that's the cost headwind that will materialize in the remainder of the year, for which we have to account and that's where we decided to guide for clear EPS in line with what we said the last time.”
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Key theme
Management stated that a specific initiative will be really quite big for the company and its partners in the coming years.
Source quote
“I've explained this a few times, this will be really quite big for them and for us in the coming years.”
3 more
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Key theme
Bringing operations in-house is expected to save the company money starting in Q1 2026.
Source quote
“And reality is by bringing them in-house, we will save quite a bit of money.”
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Key theme
The company will invest in flexibility by bringing some propositions in-house to improve operational control.
Source quote
“And so we will invest in flexibility, bringing in-house some of these propositions.”
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Figure
Biscuit sales grew over 4% at Walmart, the value channel, and Costco, outperforming the total U.S. biscuit market growth of 0.3%.
Source quote
“For instance, Walmart, the value channel and Costco saw biscuits grow over 4% versus the total U.S. biscuit market, which was only 0.3% up.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q1 2026. Ring: Q4 2025.
Management was more positive answering analysts than in its script — usually a sign it was comfortable with the details it was asked about.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Evirth, the acquisition there in cakes and pastries, high single-digit growth, and we continue to increase our distribution.”
“It is a brand that most likely for the year is going to grow double digit, and we have still plenty of opportunities and Chews has been an amazing innovation...”
“Linked to that, chocolate in Australia and New Zealand had very strong growth, again, driven by strong Easter.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-03-31)
| Metric | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Q4 2025period end 2025-12-31 | Change | Q1 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.08B | 10.50B | −4.0% | 9.31B | +8.2% |
| Gross profit | 2.80B | 2.96B | −5.2% | 2.43B | +15.3% |
| Operating income | 808.0M | 952.0M | −15.1% | 680.0M | +18.8% |
| Net income | 560.0M | 665.0M | −15.8% | 402.0M | +39.3% |
| EPS | 0.44 | 0.52 | −15.4% | 0.31 | +41.9% |
| P/E today 20.8 | 28.5 | 28.5 | +0.0 | 25.2 | +3.3 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- Biscoff there is onto an incredible start, and Mondelez International has some very strong share gains.
- Snacking value growth is holding up quite well, and the penetration of biscuits and chocolate categories, for instance, is holding...
- Those are proven volume platform things that really work well from a consumer standpoint.
- One of the things that Mondelez International is realizing is that consumers are shifting through channels to different pack sizes.
Faded since Q4 2025
- Dropped Mondelez International also planned for some disruption due to the usual customer negotiation process that takes place in the first part...
- Dropped On the other part of S and A, as of the overheads part, Mondelez International will continue with cost savings, but...
- Fading Despite all the volatility and important price increases that took place, the category overall remained strong.
- Fading Mondelez International has learned that certain price points are very important.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The company issued a press release on July 28, 2026, announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Mondelēz International appointed Amit Banati as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective July 1, 2026, with an annual base salary of $1,050,000 and a target annual long-term equity grant of $5,000,000.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The company issued a press release on April 28, 2026, announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.
- Material agreement; Agreement terminated; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
The company entered into a $1.5 billion 364-day senior unsecured revolving credit agreement on February 18, 2026, replacing a previously terminated $1.5 billion agreement.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
The company issued a press release on February 3, 2026, announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Luca Zaramella was appointed as Chief Operating Officer effective February 1, 2026, with an approved 2026 annual compensation package including a $1,250,000 base salary and a $7,225,000 long-term incentive target.
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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the remainder of the year
promotions
Source quote
“we have promotions lined up for the remainder of the year.”
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the rest of the year
execution
Source quote
“And we are focused on execution for the rest of the year, but we feel good about '26 and particularly about '27.”
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the remainder of the year
cost headwind from the Middle East situation
Source quote
“But at this point in time, as I said, there is a little bit of cost headwind coming out of the Middle East situation. We are well covered for oil and packaging costs for the remainder of the year.”
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into 2027
coverage for oil and packaging costs
Source quote
“We are well covered for oil and packaging costs for the remainder of the year. And quite frankly, also into 2027, but some regulated market do not allow us to do anything in terms of protecting ourselves, and that's the cost headwind that will materialize in the remainder of the year, for which we have to account and that's where we decided to guide for clear EPS in line with what we said the last time.”
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in the coming years
expansion of the partnership with Biscoff
Source quote
“And so that collaboration will keep on expanding over the years, and I expect that we will come up with a few more in the coming years.”