MAT Nasdaq Russell 1000 Earnings call

Mattel (MAT) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

Share price: $16.08 · 2026-11-11

Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 4 Aug 2026 and 29 Apr 2026

Net income turned to a loss from a profit last quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.

Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.

1 · Numbers

Turned loss

Net income vs Q1 2026

Outlook given

Net income -18.2M vs 61.0M

Revenue +30.5%

2 · How management spoke

Typical

Less upbeat than 55% of company calls

Answers to analysts: upbeat, in line with the script.

Similar to last call.

3 · What stood out

Figure

The company has acquired a total of $1.5 billion in shares since resuming repurchases in 2023, which represents a reduction in shares.

Valuation

Is Mattel undervalued?

Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.

At −0.5% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $12.22 a share — the stock trades 32% above it. Today's price assumes 2.1% growth a year.

Current price

$16.08

close of 2026-11-11

Market implies growth of i

+2.1% for 10 yrs

Fair value / share

$12.22

Buy below

$9.16

Price vs fair value

Overvalued 32%

Price vs buy-below price

Overvalued 75%

FCF growth / yr i Discount rate i Terminal growth i Margin of safety i

Official channels

The company's own website and social media accounts.

Read between the lines

Key theme

Mattel reported net sales growth of 10% as reported and 9% in constant currency, driven by its IP-driven play and family entertainment business.

Source quote
“Mattel achieved strong growth in net sales of 10% as reported and 9% in constant currency with a double-digit increase... We continue to execute our strategy to grow our IP-driven play and family entertainment business with multiple proof points across toys, digital and film. Growth was driven by both owned and partner IP and digital games following the full acquisition of Mattel163.”
Guidance

The company reaffirmed its revenue guidance for the upcoming period.

Source quote
“As you well said, we just reiterated guidance, and let me start with the top line.”
Guidance

In terms of margin assumptions, which is the second part, Mattel is also confirming its guidance of approximately 50% in terms of gross margin.
Fading

Net sales grew 4% as reported and 1% in constant currency while adjusted earnings per share declined $0.18.

Source quote
“Net sales grew 4% as reported and 1% in constant currency and adjusted earnings per share declined $0.18. Gross billings grew 2% in constant currency with increase in vehicles and challenging categories overall, partly offset by a decrease in dollars and [indiscernible] and preschool. Per circana, Mattel was #1 globally in our later categories dolls, vehicles and infant partner and preschool and gained share in vehicles and action figures.”

Tone

How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesi. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.

Prepared remarks Typical (was typical)

Answers to analysts Upbeat (was upbeat)

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“As it relates to the global toy industry, it grew strongly in the first half, and we expect it to grow for the full year with a toyetic theatrical slate...”

“In summary, this quarter, we made important strides in our strategy to grow our IP-driven play and family entertainment business and achieved strong growth in top line.”

“Mattel achieved strong growth in net sales of 10% as reported and 9% in constant currency with a double-digit increase in North America.”

Full figures

USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)

Metric	Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30	Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31	Change	Q2 2025	YoY
Revenue	1.13B	862.2M	+30.5%	1.02B	+10.5%
Gross profit	542.1M	386.8M	+40.2%	519.0M	+4.5%
Operating income	10.9M	-102.7M	Turned profit	78.5M	−86.1%
Net income	-18.2M	61.0M	Turned loss	53.4M	Turned loss
EPS	-0.06	0.20	Turned loss	0.16	Turned loss
P/E today 12.0	10.4	9.3	+1.1	12.8	−2.4

Topics

Most discussed now

New As the leader of Mattel's global brand team, Roberto will be joining its earnings calls to provide additional perspective on...
These investments are progressing well, and Mattel continues to expect that in aggregate, they will have high ROI with a...
Going the other way, 120 basis points from the addition of Mattel163 and 80 basis points from other, including tariff...
Mattel's world-class brand portfolio and product offering, driven by its brand-centric operating model and global capabilities position us…
The Masters of the Universe brand overall has more than tripled year-to-date.

Faded since Q1 2026

Dropped The preliminary financial results included in the earnings release and slide presentation represent the most current information available…
Fading Mattel also executed on its capital allocation priorities including closing the acquisition of full ownership of Mattel 163 mobile game...
Fading Challenger categories collectively increased 17%, and Games grew led by Uno, including the benefit of the partial quarter contribution of...
Fading North America declined 4%, including the impact of the shift in U.S.

Latest announcements

Official filings, newest first.

2026-09-30 Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
2026-08-04 Results of operations · SEC 8-K
2026-07-31 Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
2026-06-02 Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K
2026-04-29 Results of operations · SEC 8-K
2026-04-07 Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
2026-02-10 Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
2025-11-17 Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K