James Hardie Industries (JHX) · Q2 2026 results and valuation

At 8.6% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $0.70 a share — the stock trades 3983% above it. Today's price assumes 29.8% growth a year.

1. Guidance

   JHX expects Q2 net sales of $1.485 billion to $1.575 billion, representing a growth of 14.9% to 21.9%.

   Source quote

   “In Q2, we expect net sales of $1.485 billion to $1.575 billion, or growth of 14.9% to 21.9%.”

2. Guidance

   JHX expects free cash flow to exceed $500 million for the full year and capital expenditures to be approximately 6% to 7% of net sales.

   Source quote

   “We expect free cash flow to exceed $500 million for the full year and capital expenditures to be approximately 6% to 7% of net sales.”

3. Figure

   James Hardie's outperformance in the quarter was broad-based, but it was led by its fiber cement business, where organic growth of 20%…

4. Fading

   Net sales of $1.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $381 million came in ahead of expectations despite a challenging construction market.

   Source quote

   “For the fourth quarter, we delivered net sales of $1.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $381 million ahead of expectations. Despite a challenging construction market The result of staying focused on what we can control execution, cost, and serving our customers. With adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.1%.”

Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.

Sentences that drove the tone

“And where AZEK gives us immediate channel relevance, an established footprint, strong relationships and complementary products, the expanded statement and statement Essentials rollout is gaining traction, continuing with double-digit growth...”

“Building on that momentum, we opened 2 new expanded Statement partner stocking locations on the East Coast, improving service and availability of the full collection across our pilot markets, with...”

“These expanded partnerships are a validation of our strategy and the culmination of months of planning to bring together James Hardie's industry-leading exterior building products with the best-in-class national distributor...”