JCI US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Johnson Controls (JCI) · Q4 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $144.61 · 2026-11-11
Johnson Controls designs, manufactures, and services building products including HVAC equipment, fire and security systems, and digital software solutions. The company serves commercial, industrial, institutional, and governmental customers across the Americas, EMEA, and APAC regions. Source: 10-K annual report (2025-11-14)
Results Q4 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 27 Oct 2026 and 6 May 2026
Management sounded very upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
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Figures not yet filed
Outlook given
2 · How management spoke
Very upbeat
Among the most upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: upbeat, but clearly less so than the script.
The step down under questioning is bigger than last call.
3 · What stood out
Johnson Controls and NVIDIA plan to build 500 megawatts of distributed edge compute capacity in 2027 using Johnson Controls' thermal management and manufacturing scale.
Valuation
Is Johnson Controls undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-09-30), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 4.6% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $38.88 a share — the stock trades 272% above it. Today's price assumes 19.1% growth a year.
Current price
$144.61
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+19.1% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$38.88
Buy below
$29.16
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Management expects
Revenue +13% · from the Q4 2026 report: “JCI expects first-quarter organic revenue growth of 12% to 14%, operating leverage of 30% to 35%, and adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.20.”
A guidance figure for revenue, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Guidance
JCI expects first-quarter organic revenue growth of 12% to 14%, operating leverage of 30% to 35%, and adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.20.
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Guidance
JCI expects full-year organic revenue growth of 11 to 12%, which exceeds the high single-digit growth in its long-term algorithm.
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Guidance
JCI expects an adjusted free cash flow conversion of approximately 95% as the company increases capital expenditure to support growth.
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Figure
Organic revenue grew more than 8%, adjusted EPS increased 37%, and adjusted free cash flow conversion was 103%, reflecting key growth and cash flow performance.
Source quote
“Organic revenue increased more than 8%, adjusted EPS increased 37%, and adjusted free cash flow conversion was 103%.”
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Figure
JCI and NVIDIA plan to build 500 megawatts of distributed edge compute capacity in 2027 to bring capacity online faster using JCI's thermal management and manufacturing scale.
Source quote
“As announced at the NVIDIA GTC in Berlin, together we plan to build 500 megawatts of distributed edge compute capacity in 2027, bringing together our thermal management technology, engineering capabilities, and global manufacturing scale to bring capacity online faster.”
4 more
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Guidance
JCI ended the year with $600 million of cash while net debt declined to 1.8 times below the long-term target range.
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Guidance
JCI anticipates run rate savings of $100 to $150 million above the original $500 million target as they translate into earnings this year.
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Guidance
JCI exceeded both its initial fiscal 2026 guidance and the raised outlook provided during the year.
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Figure
JCI anticipates that 70% to 80% of the current backlog will convert into revenue over the next 12 months.
Source quote
“We still anticipate 70% to 80% of that backlog to convert into revenue over the next 12 months.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q4 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — one of the biggest drops of any company call. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“We're acting decisively on that opportunity, investing ahead to expand capacity and capture a larger portion of the growth in our highest growth markets, while simplifying Johnson Controls to reduce...”
“Our ability to maintain such a strong cash flow conversion while increasing investment, investing in restructuring, and increasing manufacturing capacity demonstrate the strength and quality of our earnings and disciplined...”
“Systems grew 13%, reflecting continuous strength in data centers, while service continues to deliver with a solid 8% growth.”
Full figures
Q4 2026 figures are not available yet: the company files its quarterly report (10-Q) a few weeks after the call. This page compares what management said; the figures are added when the report is filed.
Topics
Most discussed now
- Johnson Controls' operating performance translated to strong cash flow generation, supported by the discipline execution and working…
- New If you are attending via the webinar, please click the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen to...
- Over the last 18 months, Johnson Controls has made significant progress toward becoming a more focused thermal technology company, growing…
- Systems grew 13%, reflecting continuous strength in data centers, while service continues to deliver with a solid 8% growth.
- Both are integral to Johnson Controls' value creation plan and reflect a consistent and disciplined approach to capital allocation.
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Against that backdrop, yesterday, Johnson Controls announced the release of its second AI factory reference design guide focused on air…
- Fading In these environments, customers need high-performance cooling, delivering precise operating conditions while requiring better energy…
- Fading These results highlight the operating momentum building across the business as Johnson Controls enters the second half of the year.
- Fading Johnson Controls has, over the last couple of quarters, been digging into its security business as a service business deeper and...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Johnson Controls reported Q4 sales of $7.1 billion, up 10% year-over-year, with organic sales increasing 12% and a backlog of $23.0 billion, which grew 43% organically.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Julie Brandt will leave her role as Vice President and President, Global Commercial and Field Operations on September 25, 2026, and transition to an advisory role starting October 1, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Johnson Controls reported Q3 sales of $6.6 billion, up 9% year-over-year, with a GAAP EPS of $1.23 and a backlog of $21.0 billion, up 32% organically.
- Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Johnson Controls appointed Irene Esteves to its board of directors and the Audit Committee on June 3, 2026, with a prorated quarterly retainer of $11,154.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Johnson Controls International plc approved a long-term Value Growth Incentive Program on May 11, 2026, featuring performance-based share options and share appreciation rights for the fiscal years 2026 through 2030.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Johnson Controls reported Q2 sales of $6.1 billion, an 8% increase from the previous year, with a GAAP EPS of $0.99 and a backlog of $20.0 billion.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Lei Schlitz will leave her role as Vice President and President, Global Products & Solutions, on October 1, 2026, following a planned transition of the company's operating model.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-29.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$698.0M
2026-03-31
Short-term investments
$100.0M
total $798.0M
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -7.1% YoY, +0.2% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | 670.3M |
| Q4 2024 | 662.0M |
| Q1 2025 | 659.0M |
| Q2 2025 | 655.4M |
| Q4 2025 | 611.0M |
| Q1 2026 | 612.0M |
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 59 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
152.8K shares
$21.3M · 13 transactions
Bought by insiders
7.7K shares
$1.0M · 1 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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2027
build 500 megawatts of distributed edge compute capacity
Source quote
“As announced at the NVIDIA GTC in Berlin, together we plan to build 500 megawatts of distributed edge compute capacity in 2027, bringing together our thermal management technology, engineering capabilities, and global manufacturing scale to bring capacity online faster.”
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fiscal 2027
capital expenditures
Source quote
“We expect approximately $900 million of capital expenditures in fiscal 2027.”
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over fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028
restructuring expense
Source quote
“We anticipate approximately $400 million of restructuring expense over fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028, and expect approximately $600 million of gross annualized savings by fiscal 2029.”
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For the first quarter
organic revenue growth, operating leverage, and adjusted EPS
Source quote
“For the first quarter, we expect organic revenue growth of 12 to 14%, operating leverage of 30 to 35%, and adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.20.”
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For the full year
organic revenue growth, operating leverage, and adjusted EPS
Source quote
“For the full year, we expect organic revenue growth of 11 to 12%, ahead of the high single-digit growth in our long-term algorithm. We expect operating leverage of greater than 30%, and adjusted EPS of $6.15 to $6.30.”