AAON Nasdaq Russell 1000 Earnings call
AAON, Inc. (AAON) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $76.33 · 2026-11-11
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 10 Aug 2026 and 7 May 2026
Net income up 42.3% on the previous quarter. Management sounded very upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
Only a basic analysis is available for this company at the moment.
1 · Numbers
+42.3%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 56.7M vs 39.8M
Revenue +26.2%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is +265.8%, so it is not just seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Very upbeat
Among the most upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, but clearly less so than the script.
The step down under questioning is bigger than last call.
3 · What stood out
AAON updated its guidance to expect sales growth of 55% to 60%, gross margin of 25% to 26%, and SG&A expense of 13% to 14% of sales.
Valuation
Is AAON, Inc. undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 10.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $29.70 a share — the stock trades 157% above it. Today's price assumes 22.4% growth a year.
Current price
$76.33
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+22.4% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$29.70
Buy below
$22.27
Price vs fair value
Overvalued 157%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Management expects
Sales +57.5% · from the Q2 2026 report: “Sales growth expected at 55% to 60% with gross margin target of 25% to 26%.”
A guidance figure for sales, usually one year ahead, not a 10-year free-cash-flow rate.
Read between the lines
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Guidance
Sales growth expected at 55% to 60% with gross margin target of 25% to 26%.
Source quote
“We now expect sales growth of 55% to 60%, gross margin of 25% to 26%, SG&A expense of 13% to 14% of sales, and depreciation and amortization expense...”
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Figure
For the first half of the year, sales were up 137% year-over-year and 570% on a 2-year stack.
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — one of the biggest drops of any company call. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“The improvement in margin reflected strong volume growth, partially offset by incremental resources and investments to support future growth and share gains.”
“Today, we are seeing stronger throughput, faster backlog conversion, improved sales growth, expanding operating leverage and improving cash flow.”
“AAON branded sales increased 40% year-over-year and 5% sequentially, reflecting improved production throughput, strong demand and continued execution improvement across the business.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 627.0M | 496.9M | +26.2% | 311.6M | +101.2% |
| Gross profit | 152.5M | 125.0M | +22.0% | 82.7M | +84.3% |
| Operating income | 68.9M | 57.1M | +20.7% | 23.6M | +192.1% |
| Net income | 56.7M | 39.8M | +42.3% | 15.5M | +265.8% |
| EPS | 0.68 | 0.48 | +41.7% | 0.19 | +257.9% |
| P/E today 44.4 | 66.8 | 58.3 | +8.5 | 50.2 | +16.6 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New Whether recently, through some of AAON's current supply chain challenges or during the COVID supply chain challenges, the in-sourcing of...
- AAON branded sales increased 40% year-over-year and 5% sequentially, reflecting improved production throughput, strong demand and continued…
- Consolidated margins remain pressured by the mix impact of exceptionally strong growth, ramp-up activity associated with new capacity and…
- AAON thinks about it from the standpoint of that trajectory that it sees really highlights that, that differentiated offering that...
- New Supply chain resiliency that AAON's supply chain organization is focused
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading As AAON balances exactly where all those resources are driving kind of throughput for the overall enterprise, some of that...
- Fading AAON is seeing good strength out of in its local markets.
- Fading Operationally, AAON executed well for its customers with all 3 facilities delivering record basics branded sales during the quarter.
- Fading To delivering record sales and 37% earnings growth, AAON recorded a book-to-bill well above 1, resulting in backlog...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first.
- Regulation FD disclosure; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change; Articles or bylaws amended · SEC 8-K
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
- Shareholder vote results; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations; Regulation FD disclosure; Other events · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K