CCL US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call
Carnival Corporation (CCL) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $30.68 · 2026-11-11
Carnival Corporation operates a portfolio of cruise lines providing vacation experiences to guests globally. The company operates a variety of cruise brands across different market segments, including contemporary, premium, and luxury travel. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-01-27)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 · previous quarter · published 29 Sep 2026 and 23 Jun 2026
Net income up 257.5% on the previous quarter. Management sounded cautious, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
+257.5%
Net income vs Q2 2026
Outlook given
Net income 1.92B vs 537.0M
Revenue +26.6%
Against the same quarter last year (Q3 2025) it is +3.7% — part of the move on last quarter is seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Cautious
Among the least upbeat of all company calls
Answers to analysts: typical, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
Celebration Key is expected to welcome approximately 3.5 million guests next year with 31 ships calling, compared to 26 ships this year.
Valuation
Is Carnival Corporation undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Free cash flow from the last full fiscal year (2025-11-30), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At 20.0% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $78.65 a share — the stock trades 61% below it. Today's price assumes 10.5% growth a year.
Current price
$30.68
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+10.5% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$78.65
Buy below
$58.99
Price vs fair value
Undervalued 61%
Price vs buy-below price
Undervalued 48%
Read between the lines
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Guidance
Full year EPS guidance increased by $0.02 to $2.24 from previous guidance.
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Guidance
Execution delivered approximately $2 billion to the bottom line, exceeding guidance by $100 million due to contributions from both revenue and costs.
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Guidance
Quarter net income exceeded June guidance by over $100 million or $0.08 per share due to record revenues and yields.
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Guidance
Operational improvements of more than $150 million since June guidance fully offset the expected impact of higher fuel prices.
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Key theme
Celebration Key is expected to welcome approximately 3.5 million guests next year with 31 ships calling, compared to 26 ships this year.
Source quote
“Celebration Key is expected to welcome approximately 3.5 million guests next year with 31 ships calling versus 26 this year.”
4 more
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Figure
Just 6 months into its share repurchase program, Carnival has already bought back about $1.2 billion of stock alongside its ongoing dividend.
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Key theme
CCL will return nearly $2 billion to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and expected fiscal year dividend payouts.
Source quote
“Combining share repurchases with our expected fiscal year dividend payout, we will be returning nearly $2 billion to shareholders.”
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Figure
More than 50% of revenues are now prebooked, providing more certainty regarding future revenue streams for the company.
Source quote
“We're seeing more than 50% of our revenues prebooked.”
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Figure
Management expects the new product to fit within the company's 1 to 2 ship a year construction.
Source quote
“I still think it will fit within our 1 to 2 ship a year construct.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q2 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“And so we are an amazing value for people if the consumer confidence isn't great, if there is pressure from things like price of gasoline, if there's other inflation, if...”
“But the reduction in the volatility to us isn't worth paying banks or counterparties to effectuate those types of trades.”
“It's a very fair question to ask because it does have the ability to reduce volatility in any given year.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-08-31)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-08-31 | Q2 2026period end 2026-05-31 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.44B | 6.66B | +26.6% | 8.15B | +3.5% |
| Operating income | 2.22B | 851.0M | +160.9% | 2.27B | −2.2% |
| Net income | 1.92B | 537.0M | +257.5% | 1.85B | +3.7% |
| EPS | 1.40 | 0.39 | +259.0% | 1.33 | +5.3% |
| P/E today 13.0 | 10.5 | 12.6 | −2.1 | 16.4 | −5.9 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New Carnival is going to be able to flex both Celebration Key and RelaxAway because both now have their full marine...
- If you have a job, you get a break and you need that vacation.
- New Kind of maybe final shot on goal at this, but I was going back to look at your PROPEL guidance...
- To date, Carnival has improved its full year expectations by more than 1 point even after absorbing continued pressure from...
- Once again, Carnival closed out another excellent quarter with revenues, yields and reported net income all reaching new highs, while...
Faded since Q2 2026
- Dropped Next is what Carnival considers the fun refurbishment side, which is guest facing public areas, cabin work, new venues for...
- Fading Carnival outperformed its March guidance by $100 million driven by continued commercial execution and a step up in its cost...
- Fading Delivering flat unit operating costs and outperforming Carnival's cost guidance by 2.5 points.
- Fading The primary driver of Carnival's outperformance was exceptional cost discipline.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Material agreement; New financial obligation · SEC 8-K
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Carnival Corporation reported its results of operations on September 29, 2026, noting that the company outperformed guidance with record revenues, net yields, and net income.
- Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Carnival Corporation Ltd. issued a notice of redemption for $500,000,000 of its 7.000% First-Priority Senior Secured Notes due 2029 at a price of 103.50% of the principal amount.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Carnival Corporation reported record second quarter revenues, net yields, and adjusted net income for the period ending June 23, 2026.
- Agreement terminated; Acquisition or disposal; Listing notice; Unregistered share sale; Change to shareholder rights; 5.01; Articles or bylaws amended; Regulation FD disclosure · SEC 8-K
Carnival Corporation completed the unification of its dual listed company structure and redomiciled to Bermuda, resulting in the acquisition of all Carnival plc shares and the termination of the 2003 Equalization Agreement.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Carnival Corporation & plc reported record first quarter operating results and record bookings as of March 27, 2026.
- Material agreement · SEC 8-K
Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc entered into a unification agreement on February 20, 2026, to merge their dual listed structure and redomicile the company to Bermuda.
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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next month
Princess joining Celebration Key
Source quote
“Its reach is also expanding beyond Carnival Cruise Line with Princess joining next month, followed by select calls from AIDA and Costa late next year.”
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next year
Celebration Key expected to welcome approximately 3.5 million guests with 31 ships calling
Source quote
“With the second pier now open, Celebration Key is expected to welcome approximately 3.5 million guests next year with 31 ships calling versus 26 this year.”
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next year
35% of Carnival Cruise Line's Caribbean capacity will feature itineraries visiting both RelaxAway and Celebration Key
Source quote
“In fact, next year, 35% of Carnival Cruise Line's Caribbean capacity will feature itineraries visiting both of these incredible destinations on the same cruise.”
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May
Carnival Festivale enters service in the Caribbean
Source quote
“Carnival Festivale enters service in the Caribbean in May in time for the summer season and begins contributing to our results in the second half of the year.”
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Next year
leaning even further into our successful Northern European deployments
Source quote
“Next year, for example, we are leaning even further into our successful Northern European deployments where guest interest continues to grow in coolcations, cooler weather destinations and outdoor activities like hiking, exploring the fjords of Norway and enjoying the Northern Lights.”