COP US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call
ConocoPhillips (COP) · Q2 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $137.86 · 2026-11-11
ConocoPhillips is an American multinational corporation engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and production. It operates in the energy sector. Source: Wikipedia
Results Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 6 Aug 2026 and 30 Apr 2026
Net income up 80.1% on the previous quarter. Management sounded about as positive as a typical company call, in its script and in answers to analysts.
1 · Numbers
+80.1%
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 3.93B vs 2.18B
Revenue +21.6%
Against the same quarter last year (Q2 2025) it is +99.4%, so it is not just seasonal.
2 · How management spoke
Typical
More upbeat than 62% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, in line with the script.
Similar to last call.
3 · What stood out
ConocoPhillips expects a free cash flow inflection point to culminate with Willow in 2029.
Valuation
Is ConocoPhillips undervalued?
Reverse DCF on net income from the last full fiscal year (no meaningful free cash flow: a bank, insurer or a year of negative cash flow) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
At −9.1% growth a year (3-year revenue growth), the model's fair value is $14.11 a share — the stock trades 877% above it. Today's price assumes 17.5% growth a year.
Current price
$137.86
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+17.5% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$14.11
Buy below
$10.58
Price vs fair value
Overvalued >200%
Price vs buy-below price
Overvalued >200%
Read between the lines
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Figure
The company expects a free cash flow inflection point to culminate with Willow in 2029.
Source quote
“All of this continues to underpin and preserve our confidence in this free cash flow inflection. That ultimately culminates with Willow in 29.”
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Guidance
The company continues to target returning 45% of its CFO to shareholders this year for distributions.
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Figure
Cash flow from operations reached $7.2 billion and, after $3 billion in CapEx, resulted in $4.2 billion of free cash flow for the quarter.
Source quote
“Cash flow from operations was $7.2 billion and after $3 billion of CapEx, that translated into $4.2 billion of free cash flow.”
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Guidance
The company expects acquisition capital to be between $300 and $500 million at close.
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Figure
A notable figure stated that the key pillars of the company's strategy will remain unchanged to provide confidence in the company's strategic direction.
Source quote
“I have been very fortunate to have the opportunity to be involved in all the major strategic decisions that we have made over the past decade. So that should give you confidence that the key pillars of our strategy will remain unchanged.”
4 more
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Key theme
The company will continue high grading the portfolio to refine its holdings.
Source quote
“We will continue high grading the portfolio.”
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Key theme
Capital expenditures for Willow have peaked, indicating a shift in the company's spending profile for the current quarter.
Source quote
“Peak CapEx of Willow is behind us.”
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Key theme
Management does not expect project delays to meaningfully impact free cash flow, which is expected to show continued progress through the next couple of years.
Source quote
“And so we are not expecting any delays coming out of those projects to meaningfully impact our free cash flow that we are continuing to see progress through the next couple of years.”
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Key theme
Reinvestment rates in Alaska will remain in the thirties post first oil well into the future.
Source quote
“Our reinvestment rates in Alaska have consistently been in the thirties, and you should expect that from us post first oil well into the future.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q2 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Script and answers carried a similar tone, so the script's message held up under questioning.
Sentences that drove the tone
“ConocoPhillips delivered strong second quarter results Production was above the high end of our guidance range with our peer leading Permian position achieving a new record of over 900 thousand...”
“All of this is made possible by the best people in the business, and I am pleased to transition our leadership of the company with us being in such a...”
“And bring strong leadership, and he is played really a key role in our success that we have had to date.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-06-30)
| Metric | Q2 2026period end 2026-06-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q2 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.16B | 15.76B | +21.6% | 14.00B | +36.8% |
| Gross profit | 12.45B | 9.48B | +31.3% | 8.92B | +39.6% |
| Operating income | 6.08B | 3.36B | +80.9% | 3.02B | +101.6% |
| Net income | 3.93B | 2.18B | +80.1% | 1.97B | +99.4% |
| EPS | 3.23 | 1.78 | +81.5% | 1.56 | +107.1% |
| P/E today 14.4 | 13.8 | 22.4 | −8.6 | 12.0 | +1.8 |
Topics
Most discussed now
- New His leadership experience and deep understanding of ConocoPhillips' business make him well positioned to lead the company forward.
- New With a track record of delivering superior returns on and of capital through the cycles.
- Driven by strong operational performance across ConocoPhillips' global portfolio.
- Kirk and Nick will remain important members of the executive leadership team and trusted partners as ConocoPhillips moves forward.
- What ConocoPhillips is targeting here is large resource bases with low entry costs, competitive cost supplies, and then structures, very...
Faded since Q1 2026
- Dropped In Alaska, ConocoPhillips is winding down another successful winter construction season.
- Dropped International crude oil volumes are mainly linked to Dated Brent pricing.
- Fading The supply curtailment and ensuing macro volatility have not only impacted energy markets, but are also being felt across the...
- Fading If you include the Persian Gulf refineries that have been damaged, the total global refinery run cuts right now probably...
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Effective September 1, 2026, Andy O’Brien will become President and CEO with a base salary of $1.7 million, while Ryan Lance will transition to Executive Chair with a base salary of $1.1 million.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
ConocoPhillips issued its financial and operating results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, on August 6, 2026.
- Director or officer change · SEC 8-K
Kelly B. Rose announced her retirement as Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of ConocoPhillips, effective September 1, 2026.
- Shareholder vote results · SEC 8-K · routine
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
ConocoPhillips issued its financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, as disclosed in the press release and accompanying exhibits.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
ConocoPhillips issued a press release on February 5, 2026, reporting its financial and operating results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
ConocoPhillips issued its financial and operating results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, on November 6, 2025.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-11.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$6.57B
2026-06-30
Short-term investments
$1.12B
total $7.69B
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: -3.5% YoY, -0.9% QoQ.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 1.16B |
| Q1 2025 | 1.27B |
| Q2 2025 | 1.26B |
| Q3 2025 | 1.25B |
| Q1 2026 | 1.22B |
| Q2 2026 | 1.21B |
Shares outstanding: 1.20B (2026-06-30)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. Coverage: newest 50 of 64 filings; 50 filings parsed.
Sold by insiders
783.8K shares
$99.5M · 14 transactions
Bought by insiders
0 shares
0 transactions
Net direction
net selling
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
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September 1
retirement of the CEO
Source quote
“That I will be retiring as CEO effective September 1.”
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2027
LNG projects begin contributing
Source quote
“Our LNG projects will begin contributing in 2027, and Willow continues to hit all key milestones in advance of first oil in early 29.”
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by 2029
delivery of $7 billion free cash flow inflection
Source quote
“We remain firmly on track to deliver our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.”
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this year
target returning 45% of our CFO to shareholders
Source quote
“For distributions, we continue to target returning 45% of our CFO to shareholders this year.”
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the second half of the year
expected increase in the distribution percentage
Source quote
“We averaged about 40% for the first half, meaning we expect to increase the distribution percentage over the second half of the year.”