DOW US S&P 500Russell 1000 Earnings call · transcribed from the recording
Dow Inc. (DOW) · Q3 2026 results and valuation
Share price: $32.54 · 2026-11-11
Dow Inc. is a materials science company that produces chemicals, plastics, and performance materials. It serves customers in markets such as packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications. The company operates manufacturing sites in 29 countries. Source: 10-K annual report (2026-02-03)
Results Q3 2026 vs Q1 2026 · previous quarter · published 22 Oct 2026 and 23 Apr 2026
Net income turned to a profit from a loss last quarter. Management sounded upbeat, though noticeably less so answering analysts.
1 · Numbers
Turned profit
Net income vs Q1 2026
Outlook given
Net income 458.0M vs -533.0M
Revenue +15.0%
Why Against the same quarter last year (+638.7%), net income rose primarily because operating EBIT increased by $223 million due to higher polyethylene prices, improved integrated margins, and benefits from self-help initiatives.
2 · How management spoke
Upbeat
More upbeat than 77% of company calls
Answers to analysts: restrained, but clearly less so than the script.
Last call it was different: script and answers matched.
3 · What stood out
Dow expects a tailwind of approximately $1.3 billion in 2027 from self-help initiatives.
Valuation
Is Dow Inc. undervalued?
Reverse DCF. Average free cash flow of the last three fiscal years (the last year was negative) (2025-12-31), grown for 10 years, discounted back, plus a terminal value. “Implied growth” is the rate the current price assumes.
The projected cash flow doesn't cover the debt, so the price is far above the model's fair value.
Current price
$32.54
close of 2026-11-11
Market implies growth of iThe yearly free-cash-flow growth, for the next 10 years, that today’s share price already assumes. If you believe the company grows faster than this, the stock is cheap under this model; slower, and it is expensive.
+27.7% for 10 yrs
Fair value / share
$-13.60
Buy below
$-10.20
Price vs fair value
n/a
Price vs buy-below price
n/a
Read between the lines
-
Guidance
Dow expects EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion for the fourth quarter.
Source quote
“Operating EBITDA was more than $1.5 billion as pricing actions and self-help measures more than offset higher raw material and logistics costs to drive year-over-year growth.”
-
Figure
Net sales increased 13% year over year with growth in every operating segment, indicating broad expansion across the company's business units.
Source quote
“Net sales were up 13% year over year with growth in every operating segment.”
-
Key theme
Dow expects a tailwind of approximately $1.3 billion in 2027 from self-help initiatives.
Source quote
“You heard in my prepared remarks, our expectation is that our tailwind purely on self-help will deliver about $1.3 billion in 2027.”
-
Figure
Dow remains on track to achieve approximately $700 million in growth and productivity improvements this year.
Source quote
“And we remain on track to achieve approximately $700 million in growth and productivity improvements this year.”
-
Figure
Dow delivered a sequential improvement of more than $150 million in self-help benefits in the third quarter.
Source quote
“We delivered a sequential improvement of more than $150 million in self-help benefits in the third quarter.”
3 more
-
Figure
The company expects to add $60 million of EBITDA in the second half of the year alone.
Source quote
“Just as a reminder, that's going to add $60 million of EBITDA in the second half of the year alone.”
-
Guidance
DOW expects cost savings to continue building through 2027 due to operating model changes that will lower spending in both SART line items and cost of goods sold.
-
Key theme
Spot prices are increasing by about six cents week over week, leading to planned price increases intended to capitalize on favorable global market dynamics.
Source quote
“We are seeing China's come back. You've seen about six cents week over week of spot prices go up, but spot prices are going up around the world, and that's why we have price increases on the table and believe that the current market dynamics will support us achieving those.”
Tone
How upbeat the language was, compared with other companiesiTone counts positive minus negative finance words, adjusted for length. Executives mostly speak positively, so the labels compare each call with every company's latest call: “typical” is the middle third, “very upbeat” the top tenth, “cautious” the bottom tenth.. Dot: Q3 2026. Ring: Q1 2026.
Management sounded noticeably less positive answering analysts than in its prepared script — a bigger drop than in 84% of calls. Scripts are polished in advance; a drop under questioning often marks the topics analysts pressed on, so the answers deserve a closer read than the script.
Sentences that drove the tone
“Through focused growth and innovation, we are directing capital and resources toward fast-growing markets and stronger commercial execution in areas where we can sharpen our competitive edge and solve more...”
“Additionally, volume and EBITDA growth in industrial solutions was fueled by robust demand for AI infrastructure and energy applications where favorable trends continue to support the segment's momentum.”
“As a result, our teams have earlier visibility into customer opportunities and stronger insights, allowing us to quickly prioritize the opportunities that have higher value potential.”
Full figures
USD · SEC EDGAR XBRL (10-Q, period end 2026-09-30)
| Metric | Q3 2026period end 2026-09-30 | Q1 2026period end 2026-03-31 | Change | Q3 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.27B | 9.79B | +15.0% | 9.97B | +13.0% |
| Gross profit | 1.38B | 640.0M | +115.3% | 731.0M | +88.5% |
| Operating income | 642.0M | -390.0M | Turned profit | 70.0M | +817.1% |
| Net income | 458.0M | -533.0M | Turned profit | 62.0M | +638.7% |
| EPS | 0.62 | -0.74 | Turned profit | 0.08 | +675.0% |
| P/E | 12-mo loss | 12-mo loss | — | 12-mo loss | — |
Topics
Most discussed now
- A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in the earnings…
- This was primarily driven by higher polyethylene prices, improved integrated margins, and benefits from Dow's self-help initiatives.
- Dow also saw increased olefins volumes after restarting its lowest-cost, most flexible cracker in Ternusen, following an idling due to...
- At the same time, Dow is driving productivity improvements of approximately $150 million in benefits in the second half of...
- Just another important point is global polyethylene prices, of course, are set by naphtha-based production.
Faded since Q1 2026
- Fading This includes supply chain disruption for an extended period of time.
- Dropped An increasingly positive margin backdrop continues to unfold, and Dow expects the pricing momentum that began in March...
- Dropped You are starting to see positive byproduct credits in the crackers.
- Fading Carter will then provide an update on current industry dynamics, including how global supply disruptions are influencing market conditions.
Latest announcements
Official filings, newest first. Summaries are generated from each filing and its attachment; every figure is checked against the source.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Dow reported net sales of $11.3 billion, up 13% year-over-year, and GAAP net income of $525 million compared to $124 million in the same period last year.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Dow reported net sales of $12.1 billion, up 20% year-over-year, and GAAP net income of $802 million compared to a loss of $801 million in the same period last year.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Dow Inc. is registering 5,410,000 shares of its common stock under its registration statement on Form S-3 as of July 10, 2026.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Dow reported net sales of $9.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, down 6% compared to $10.4 billion in the same period of the previous year.
- Director or officer change; Shareholder vote results; Regulation FD disclosure; Other events · SEC 8-K
Dow re-elected all directors for one-year terms, declared a quarterly dividend of 35 cents per share, and reported sales of approximately $40 billion in 2025.
- Other events · SEC 8-K
Dow Inc. and The Dow Chemical Company are filing a document as an exhibit to be incorporated by reference into the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025.
- Results of operations · SEC 8-K
Net sales were $9.5 billion, down 9% year-over-year, while operating EBIT was $33 million, down $421 million compared to the same period last year.
- Restructuring costs; Other events · SEC 8-K
Dow Inc. announced the Transform to Outperform initiative targeting at least $2 billion in near-term Operating EBITDA improvement, with severance and benefit costs for a workforce reduction of 4,500 roles estimated between $600 million and $800 million.
Balance sheet & ownership
From SEC filings; short interest is FINRA data via Yahoo. Collected 2026-10-28.
Cash & runway
Cash & equivalents
$4.14B
2026-09-30
Short-term investments
$619.0M
total $4.76B
Implied runway
—
operating cash flow positive over the TTM window
Dilution
weighted-average basic shares, per quarter. Change: +1.9% YoY.
| Quarter | Shares |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | 702.3M |
| Q1 2025 | 706.9M |
| Q2 2025 | 709.5M |
| Q3 2025 | 711.8M |
| Q1 2026 | 721.2M |
| Q3 2026 | 725.5M |
Shares outstanding: 723.9M (2026-09-30)
Insider transactions
Form 4 open-market trades (codes S/P), trailing 12 months. 49 filings parsed.
No open-market insider buys or sells in the window.
Catalyst calendar
management-stated targets — from the latest earnings call; plans, not promises.
-
this year
achieve approximately $700 million in growth and productivity improvements
Source quote
“And we remain on track to achieve approximately $700 million in growth and productivity improvements this year.”
-
fourth quarter and beyond
stronger production and earnings performance
Source quote
“We also completed significant planned maintenance during the third quarter, which will support stronger production and earnings performance heading into the fourth quarter and beyond.”
-
this year
commitment to implement approximately $1.3 billion in net benefits
Source quote
“we remain focused on our commitment to implement approximately $1.3 billion in net benefits this year, as well as $1.3 billion in 2027.”
-
fourth quarter
expectation of EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion
Source quote
“For the fourth quarter, we expect EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion.”
-
this year
expectation to deliver approximately $700 million from transformation
Source quote
“As I mentioned earlier, we expect to deliver approximately $700 million this year, which is higher than our initial projections.”